Vigorish
The bookmaker's built-in margin on a market, expressed as the share of every dollar wagered that the book expects to retain. The reason raw implied probabilities sum to more than 100%.
Vigorish is the bookmaker's commission, structurally embedded in the prices they quote rather than charged as a separate fee. On a typical -110 / -110 two-way market, both sides imply 52.4% win probability and total 104.8%. The 4.8 points of overround above 100% is what the book is selling. The bookmaker's expected hold per dollar wagered is the overround divided by the total implied probability, which on a -110 / -110 market works out to 4.55%. Vig, hold, and overround are sometimes used interchangeably in casual usage, but operators and sharp bettors track them as distinct quantities.
- It defines the break-even win rate any bettor must clear to be profitable. At -110, that's 52.4%. At -120, it's 54.5%. Below the break-even rate, expected value is negative even on a perfect 50/50 read.
- It varies dramatically by market. Mainstream NFL and NBA spreads run 4-5% hold; player props and futures often exceed 7-10%; same-game and correlated parlays can push past 20%.
- Comparing book hold across markets reveals where a sportsbook is most aggressive on margin. Sharp shoppers route around high-hold markets toward the lowest-margin lines, typically sides and totals at sharp books.
- For modelers, the no-vig price is the only meaningful comparison. Beating a vig-laden line is mostly a function of beating the book's fee, not predicting outcomes; beating the no-vig line is real edge.
hold = (Σ implied_prob − 1) / Σ implied_probFor each side of a market, compute implied probability as 1 / decimal_odds. Sum across all outcomes. The amount above 1.0 is the overround. Divide overround by the total to get hold, which is the bookmaker's share of every dollar wagered.
On -110 / -110, both sides imply 0.524, summing to 1.048. Overround = 0.048 = 4.8%. Hold = 0.048 / 1.048 = 4.55%. The book expects to keep 4.55 cents on every dollar wagered into this market regardless of outcome.
- Confusing vig and hold with each other. Vig (vigorish) is the casual umbrella term; in operator parlance, overround is the markup above 100% and hold is the actual share retained per dollar wagered.
- Comparing your model's probability against raw implied probability instead of no-vig fair probability. The raw figure is inflated by the margin and overstates the price you must beat.
- Assuming hold is uniform across a sportsbook. Hold varies sharply by market type, time before kickoff, and even per-game depending on liquidity and risk exposure.
Compute it yourself.
We built a free calculator that implements the formula above. Plug in your numbers and see the math.
Open Hold Percentage CalculatorIs hold the same as vigorish?
Casually yes; technically not quite. Vig is the umbrella term used by retail bettors. In bookmaker accounting, overround is the sum of implied probabilities minus 1 (how much above 100% the market is selling), and hold is the expected margin per dollar wagered (overround divided by total implied). On -110 / -110, the overround is 4.76% and the hold is 4.55%.
Why does hold matter to me as a bettor?
It defines the break-even win rate you must clear. A sustained 52.5% win rate at -110 hold is barely profitable. The same record at a market with 8% hold is meaningfully losing money. Knowing the hold of every market you bet is the first step in deciding which lines are even worth analyzing.
What's the typical hold range across major books?
Mainstream US books like DraftKings and FanDuel run 4.5-5% hold on standard NFL and NBA spreads and totals. Sharp books such as Pinnacle and Circa run 2-3%. Player props and futures often exceed 7-10%. Same-game parlays can be 15-25% or higher.
Can a bettor beat a high-hold market?
Only with a meaningfully larger edge than they would need at a low-hold market. Edge accrues against the no-vig price, not the raw line. Some recreational bettors find it easier to identify mispricing in high-hold markets because books pay less attention to them, but the math still requires more raw edge to overcome the higher fee.
Why would anyone use a high-hold book?
Higher limits, faster action settlement, retail-friendly UX, promotions, and access to markets not offered at sharp books (especially in-play and props). The trade-off is the cost of doing business there.