How we build
our predictions.
Victory Analytics and Research doesn't guess. We simulate. Our proprietary prediction engine runs thousands of simulations per game, per matchup, per season — converging on probability distributions that reflect the true complexity of professional sports.
Monte Carlo
Simulation.
Most prediction models produce a single number. We produce a distribution.
By running tens of thousands of simulated outcomes for every event we model, VAR captures what single-point forecasts miss: variance, tail risk, and the full range of what can actually happen on a given night or Sunday afternoon.
The output isn't just a winner. It's a probability map — giving our clients a clear picture of edge, uncertainty, and expected value.
Team & Player Performance
Historical efficiency metrics, recent form, and matchup-specific tendencies across every position and unit.
Environmental Factors
Venue, rest days, travel distance, weather conditions where applicable — every variable that shapes the game before it starts.
Market Signals
Line movement and implied probabilities from sharp books. The market is a data source, not an oracle.
Contextual Variables
Injuries, lineup changes, coaching adjustments, and schedule strength — the factors that shift distributions in real time.
Not a pick.
A probability map.
Four verticals.
All live.
Game outcomes, spread, totals, and team-level season projections
Game-level simulation with efficiency-based player modeling
Tournament and regular season game prediction
Bout-level simulation incorporating fighter style, reach, and historical finishing rates
Out-of-sample.
Every time.
We hold ourselves to the same standard we'd demand from any model: out-of-sample performance.
Our NFL simulator has demonstrated 65% against-the-spread accuracy on live predictions — a meaningful edge above the ~52.4% break-even threshold for standard -110 markets.
Every model is evaluated continuously against closing lines — the sharpest market signal available — to ensure our edge is real and not the result of overfitting.
Infrastructure,
not picks.
API-First Integration
Simulation outputs available via structured data feeds. Plug directly into your existing analytics infrastructure.
Custom Modeling
Bespoke simulation parameters tuned for your specific use case — franchise, media, or operator.
Ongoing Calibration
Models updated in real time as new data becomes available. Continuous improvement, not static snapshots.
Want the
full picture?
We share more detailed methodology documentation with qualified partners under NDA.
Request a Methodology Brief