Public data.
Audited in public.
VAR's destination product is multi-sport intelligence for team front offices and media buyers. The methodology is public-data-only by design. The validation discipline is in writing at /methodology/protocol. Real money on the prediction-markets side proves the methodology; the methodology builds the product.
Three answers to a market that just consolidated.
The licensed-data side of professional sports analytics has consolidated under a single vertically integrated incumbent serving 100% of NFL teams and 99% of D1 athletic departments. Independent platforms cannot license the deepest charting or tracking data. The competitive question is no longer "who has the most data." It is who has the most defensible methodology applied to the data everyone can access.
VAR's three durable answers:
- Public-data-only by design, not by accident. The posture is a product feature, not a constraint we work around.
- Methodology-transparent, with per-league rigor honestly disclosed. NBA > NFL > WNBA > CBB > CFB > Women's College Basketball. The full rigor table is on the protocol page.
- Multi-sport from day one. Basketball treated as one product line across four levels (Women's College Basketball, WNBA, College Basketball, NBA). One vocabulary, four fingerprint sets.
Five capabilities, sequenced.
The front-office product line ships in a defined sequence. Scheme fit first; the rest follow in order under the v2 and v3 cohorts. Each capability lands with a methodology dossier and a worked example before it's offered to a partner.
Scheme fit
How a player's tendencies, attributes, and developmental trajectory map onto a specific staff's scheme, role, and rotation. The first capability shipping under this product line. Built from public play-by-play and roster data.
Anchor piece Oct - Nov 2026
Opponent scouting
Opponent-specific tendency modeling, situational distributions, and matchup-level probability maps. Built on the same play-primitive layer that powers scheme fit.
On the v2 roadmap
Player evaluation
Aging curves, comparable-player projections, uncertainty-propagated forecasts. Methodology-transparent comp framework, not a black-box rating.
On the v2 roadmap
Opportunity cost
Counterfactual analysis on roster moves and draft choices. What the alternative would have produced, with credible-interval bounds.
On the v3 roadmap
Multi-year roster construction
Long-horizon roster optimization under contract, cap, and developmental constraints. The destination capability.
On the v3 roadmap
Probability is rare. Provenance is rarer.
Sports media has more predictions than ever and less calibrated confidence than ever. VAR's simulation outputs land with the credible interval, the sample size, and a methodology link in every cite. Your editorial standards hold; ours match them.
Simulation-powered editorial
Pre-game probability distributions, in-game leverage analysis, and post-game counterfactuals. Content desks integrate the outputs into segments, articles, and graphics packages.
Branded data licensing
License VAR's simulation outputs under your brand. Your audience sees your insights; we power the engine.
Custom research deep-dives
Commissioned analysis for features, long-form, or editorial projects that traditional box scores can't answer.
Methodology-transparent provenance
Every cite carries a Beta-Binomial credible interval and a methodology link. Your editorial standards hold; ours match them.
A short list, deliberately.
- No licensed data. No PFF charting, no Synergy tracking, no Second Spectrum / Sportlogiq feeds. Public-data-only by design.
- No black-box ratings. Every model output ships with the methodology behind it, the sample size, and the credible interval lower bound.
- No consumer pick service. The prediction-markets product line is operator-grade only. See /markets.
- No silent updates to retracted claims. The protocol requires a superseded-claim ledger; we maintain one.
Dossier-first, scope-honest.
Every front-office or media engagement begins with a methodology dossier shared under NDA. The dossier covers the validation discipline applied to the specific capability requested, the per-league rigor disclosure, and the explicit limits of the public-data-only posture. A scoped pilot follows, with pre-registered success criteria before any work touches your data or your roster.
The first publicly-checkable proof for the front-office line is the 2026 WNBA draft-class scheme-fit retrospective, scheduled for October - November 2026 after rookie year wraps. The retrospective is backward-looking and externally checkable: how the engine would have rated the 2026 draftees, compared to their actual first NBA rookie year. Methodology before claim.
The validation forge is public.
Real money on the prediction-markets side of the platform is how VAR proves its intelligence is real. The 2026-27 NFL forward test is pre-registered and tracked weekly. Every pick lands before kickoff; every result lands within 24 hours of the game ending; nothing is back-dated.
- /methodology/protocol— the canonical eight-rule spec.
- /methodology/2026-27-predictions— the live pre-registration.
- /performance — live tracking, append-only.
- /insights — methodology notes and postmortems.
Front office
or media desk.
Request a methodology dossier under NDA. Scoped pilots begin with pre-registered success criteria before any work touches your roster or your editorial calendar.