Research / Model Analysis

Per-game
analysis.

Model output for each card or game we publish on, written before the event and updated with results once it settles. NFL posts are the pre-registered forward test; UFC posts are per-card analysis backed by the live record. Pick a sport for the right context.

NFL Week 1: Cowboys vs Giants — Model Analysis

PRIME_TOT signal over (+18.5-pt edge).

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NFL Week 1: Cardinals vs Chargers — Model Analysis

PRIME_TOT signal over (+7.6-pt edge).

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NFL Week 1: Jets vs Titans — Model Analysis

PRIME_TOT signal over (+9.0-pt edge).

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NFL Week 1: Bills vs Texans — Model Analysis

PRIME_TOT signal over (+10.9-pt edge).

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NFL Week 1: Bears vs Panthers — Model Analysis

PRIME_TOT signal over (+10.6-pt edge).

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NFL Week 1: 49ers vs Rams — Model Analysis

PRIME_TOT signal over (+9.1-pt edge).

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UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Delgado: Model Analysis

Model projection across all 12 fights, with Jose Miguel Delgado (48.8%) flagged as the largest divergence from public consensus (18.9% implied).

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UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs Parnasse: Model Analysis

Model projection across all 12 fights, with Nathaniel Wood (76.9%) flagged as the largest divergence from public consensus (8.6% implied).

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UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs Song: Model Analysis

Model projection across all 11 fights, with Nilson Rojas (34.2%) flagged as the largest divergence from public consensus (10.9% implied).

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UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs Rodrigues: Model Analysis

Model projection across all 13 fights, with Serghei Spivac (45.0%) flagged as the largest divergence from public consensus (2.8% implied).

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UFC 330: Makhachev vs Machado Garry: Model Analysis

Model projection across all 12 fights, with Ian Machado Garry (46.6%) flagged as the largest divergence from public consensus (14.6% implied).

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UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld: Model Analysis

Model projection across all 9 fights, with Darren Elkins (39.2%) flagged as the largest divergence from public consensus (9.7% implied).

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UFC Fight Night: Medic vs Rodriguez: Model Analysis

Model projection across all 14 fights, with Dusko Todorovic (72.6%) flagged as the largest divergence from public consensus (41.9% implied).

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UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs Guskov: Model Analysis

Model projection across all 11 fights, with Mike Davis (42.0%) flagged as the largest divergence from public consensus (0.7% implied).

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UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs Usman: Model Analysis

Model projection across all 11 fights, with Anna Melisano (55.8%) flagged as the largest divergence from public consensus (17.7% implied).

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UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2: Model Analysis

Model projection across all 11 fights, with Kai Kamaka III (48.2%) flagged as the largest divergence from public consensus (28.5% implied).

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UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs Torres: Model Analysis

Model projection across all 12 fights, with Michel Pereira (45.1%) flagged as the largest divergence from public consensus (9.4% implied).

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UFC Fight Night: Kape vs Horiguchi: Model Analysis

Model projection across all 11 fights, with Karol Rosa (47.4%) flagged as the largest divergence from public consensus (1.1% implied).

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UFC Freedom 250: Model Analysis

Model projection across all 7 fights, with Ciryl Gane (66.5%) flagged as the largest divergence from public consensus (47.8% implied).

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UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs Bonfim: Model Analysis

Model projection across all 11 fights, with Yuneisy Duben (40.4%) flagged as the largest divergence from public consensus (1.4% implied).

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UFC Fight Night: Song vs Figueiredo: Model Analysis

Model projection across all 9 fights, with Cameron Smotherman (62.7%) flagged as the largest divergence from public consensus (31.4% implied).

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UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Costa: Model Analysis

Model projection across all 13 fights, with Tuco Tokkos (54.5%) flagged as the largest divergence from public consensus (5.5% implied).

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UFC 328: Chimaev vs Strickland: Model Analysis

Model projection across all 11 fights, with Tatsuro Taira (52.9%) flagged as the largest divergence from public consensus (16.7% implied).

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