Research / Model Analysis
Per-card
analysis.
Projected win probability for every fight on the card, with the two largest divergences from public consensus called out and per-pick results filled in once the card concludes.
MethodologyLive performance
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Costa: Model Analysis
Production model projection across all 11 fights on this card. Cross-validated 76.7% straight-up accuracy across 3 independent test seasons.
Read →UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland: Model Analysis
Model projection across all 14 fights, with Tatsuro Taira (52.9%) flagged as the largest divergence from public consensus (16.7% implied).
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