Per-game
analysis.
Model output for each card or game we publish on, written before the event and updated with results once it settles. NFL posts are the pre-registered forward test; UFC posts are per-card analysis backed by the live record. Pick a sport for the right context.
NFL Week 7: Buccaneers vs Panthers — Model Analysis
PRIME spread signal on Panthers (-6.7-pt edge vs market).
Read →UFC 333: Volkanovski vs Evloev: Model Analysis
Model projection across all 14 fights, with Dominick Reyes (53.8%) flagged as the largest divergence from public consensus (37.7% implied).
Read →NFL Week 7: Bengals vs Ravens — Model Analysis
PRIME spread signal on Ravens (-6.1-pt edge vs market).
Read →NFL Week 7: Chiefs vs Seahawks — Model Analysis
PRIME spread signal on Chiefs (+7.5-pt edge vs market).
Read →NFL Week 7: Rams vs Raiders — Model Analysis
PRIME spread signal on Rams (+6.6-pt edge vs market).
Read →NFL Week 7: Patriots vs Bears — Model Analysis
PRIME spread signal on Patriots (+6.3-pt edge vs market).
Read →UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs Malott: Model Analysis
Model projection across all 12 fights, with Tanner Boser (56.9%) flagged as the largest divergence from public consensus (36.3% implied). Corrected 2026-10-22: the first version quoted prices recorded after the bouts began.
Read →NFL Week 6: Commanders vs 49ers — Model Analysis
PRIME spread signal on 49ers (-6.5-pt edge vs market). Corrected 2026-10-17: see the note in the post.
Read →NFL Week 6: Ravens vs Browns — Model Analysis
PRIME spread signal on Ravens (+6.5-pt edge vs market). Corrected 2026-10-17: see the note in the post.
Read →NFL Week 6: Panthers vs Eagles — Model Analysis
PRIME spread signal on Panthers (+6.4-pt edge vs market).
Read →NFL Week 6: Chargers vs Chiefs — Model Analysis
PRIME spread signal on Chiefs (-6.5-pt edge vs market).
Read →NFL Week 6: Bears vs Falcons — Model Analysis
PRIME spread signal on Falcons (-7.6-pt edge vs market). Corrected 2026-10-17: see the note in the post.
Read →UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Duncan: Model Analysis
Model projection across all 11 fights, with Otari Tanzilovi (61.5%) flagged as the largest divergence from public consensus (37.3% implied). Corrected 2026-10-22: an update after the card quoted prices recorded after the bouts began.
Read →NFL Week 4: Jaguars vs Bengals — Model Analysis
PRIME spread signal on Jaguars (+7.7-pt edge vs market).
Read →UFC 332: Silva vs Wang: Model Analysis
Model projection across all 14 fights, with King Green (71.8%) flagged as the largest divergence from public consensus (38.4% implied). Corrected 2026-10-22: the first version led with a projection made without either fighter's career statistics.
Read →NFL Week 3: Raiders vs Saints — Model Analysis
PRIME_TOT signal over (+7.3-pt edge; tier retired 2026-09-24, pick stands for the record).
Read →NFL Week 3: Eagles vs Bears — Model Analysis
PRIME_TOT signal over (+17.7-pt edge; tier retired 2026-09-24, pick stands for the record).
Read →NFL Week 3: Chiefs vs Dolphins — Model Analysis
PRIME_TOT signal over (+14.3-pt edge; tier retired 2026-09-24, pick stands for the record).
Read →NFL Week 3: Jets vs Lions — Model Analysis
PRIME_TOT signal over (+8.9-pt edge; tier retired 2026-09-24, pick stands for the record).
Read →NFL Week 3: Chargers vs Bills — Model Analysis
PRIME_TOT signal over (+7.4-pt edge; tier retired 2026-09-24, pick stands for the record).
Read →NFL Week 3: Ravens vs Cowboys — Model Analysis
PRIME_TOT signal over (+11.8-pt edge; tier retired 2026-09-24, pick stands for the record).
Read →NFL Week 3: Cardinals vs 49ers — Model Analysis
PRIME_TOT signal over (+9.5-pt edge; tier retired 2026-09-24, pick stands for the record).
Read →NFL Week 3: Seahawks vs Commanders — Model Analysis
PRIME_TOT signal over (+13.9-pt edge; tier retired 2026-09-24, pick stands for the record).
Read →NFL Week 3: Bengals vs Steelers — Model Analysis
PRIME_TOT signal over (+8.7-pt edge; tier retired 2026-09-24, pick stands for the record).
Read →NFL Week 3: Titans vs Giants — Model Analysis
PRIME_TOT signal over (+9.5-pt edge; tier retired 2026-09-24, pick stands for the record).
Read →NFL Week 3: Texans vs Colts — Model Analysis
PRIME_TOT signal over (+14.7-pt edge; tier retired 2026-09-24, pick stands for the record).
Read →NFL Week 3: Panthers vs Browns — Model Analysis
PRIME_TOT signal over (+8.9-pt edge; tier retired 2026-09-24, pick stands for the record).
Read →UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs Barcelos: Model Analysis
Model projection across all 10 fights, with Raoni Barcelos (64.7%) flagged as the largest divergence from public consensus (44.8% implied).
Read →NFL Week 2: Bengals vs Texans — Model Analysis
PRIME_TOT signal over (+7.6-pt edge; tier retired 2026-09-24, pick stands for the record).
Read →NFL Week 2: Giants vs Rams — Model Analysis
PRIME_TOT signal over (+11.6-pt edge; tier retired 2026-09-24, pick stands for the record).
Read →NFL Week 2: Dolphins vs 49ers — Model Analysis
PRIME_TOT signal over (+9.1-pt edge; tier retired 2026-09-24, pick stands for the record).
Read →NFL Week 2: Commanders vs Cowboys — Model Analysis
PRIME_TOT signal over (+18.3-pt edge; tier retired 2026-09-24, pick stands for the record).
Read →NFL Week 2: Seahawks vs Cardinals — Model Analysis
PRIME_TOT signal over (+8.6-pt edge; tier retired 2026-09-24, pick stands for the record).
Read →NFL Week 2: Packers vs Jets — Model Analysis
PRIME spread signal on Packers (+6.7-pt edge vs market).
Read →NFL Week 2: Steelers vs Patriots — Model Analysis
PRIME_TOT signal over (+7.9-pt edge; tier retired 2026-09-24, pick stands for the record).
Read →NFL Week 2: Lions vs Bills — Model Analysis
PRIME_TOT signal over (+8.5-pt edge; tier retired 2026-09-24, pick stands for the record).
Read →Van vs Pantoja 2: Model Analysis
Model projection across all 12 fights, with JooSang Yoo (66.2%) flagged as the largest divergence from public consensus (20.9% implied).
Read →NFL Week 1: Falcons vs Steelers — Model Analysis
PRIME_TOT signal over (+7.3-pt edge; tier retired 2026-09-24, pick stands for the record).
Read →NFL Week 1: Cowboys vs Giants — Model Analysis
PRIME_TOT signal over (+19.1-pt edge; tier retired 2026-09-24, pick stands for the record).
Read →NFL Week 1: Cardinals vs Chargers — Model Analysis
PRIME_TOT signal over (+8.2-pt edge; tier retired 2026-09-24, pick stands for the record).
Read →NFL Week 1: Jets vs Titans — Model Analysis
PRIME_TOT signal over (+9.6-pt edge; tier retired 2026-09-24, pick stands for the record).
Read →NFL Week 1: Bills vs Texans — Model Analysis
PRIME_TOT signal over (+11.3-pt edge; tier retired 2026-09-24, pick stands for the record).
Read →NFL Week 1: Bears vs Panthers — Model Analysis
PRIME_TOT signal over (+10.3-pt edge; tier retired 2026-09-24, pick stands for the record).
Read →NFL Week 1: 49ers vs Rams — Model Analysis
PRIME_TOT signal over (+9.0-pt edge; tier retired 2026-09-24, pick stands for the record).
Read →UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Delgado: Model Analysis
Model projection across all 11 fights, with Drakkar Klose (43.5%) flagged as the largest divergence from public consensus (20.7% implied).
Read →UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs Parnasse: Model Analysis
Model projection across all 12 fights, with Nathaniel Wood (76.9%) flagged as the largest divergence from public consensus (8.6% implied).
Read →UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs Song: Model Analysis
Model projection across all 11 fights, with Nilson Rojas (34.2%) flagged as the largest divergence from public consensus (10.9% implied).
Read →UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs Rodrigues: Model Analysis
Model projection across all 13 fights, with Serghei Spivac (45.0%) flagged as the largest divergence from public consensus (2.8% implied).
Read →UFC 330: Makhachev vs Machado Garry: Model Analysis
Model projection across all 12 fights, with Ian Machado Garry (46.6%) flagged as the largest divergence from public consensus (14.6% implied).
Read →UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld: Model Analysis
Model projection across all 9 fights, with Darren Elkins (39.2%) flagged as the largest divergence from public consensus (9.7% implied).
Read →UFC Fight Night: Medic vs Rodriguez: Model Analysis
Model projection across all 14 fights, with Dusko Todorovic (72.6%) flagged as the largest divergence from public consensus (41.9% implied).
Read →UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs Guskov: Model Analysis
Model projection across all 11 fights, with Mike Davis (42.0%) flagged as the largest divergence from public consensus (0.7% implied).
Read →UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs Usman: Model Analysis
Model projection across all 11 fights, with Anna Melisano (55.8%) flagged as the largest divergence from public consensus (17.7% implied).
Read →UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2: Model Analysis
Model projection across all 11 fights, with Kai Kamaka III (48.2%) flagged as the largest divergence from public consensus (28.5% implied).
Read →UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs Torres: Model Analysis
Model projection across all 12 fights, with Michel Pereira (45.1%) flagged as the largest divergence from public consensus (9.4% implied).
Read →UFC Fight Night: Kape vs Horiguchi: Model Analysis
Model projection across all 11 fights, with Karol Rosa (47.4%) flagged as the largest divergence from public consensus (1.1% implied).
Read →UFC Freedom 250: Model Analysis
Model projection across all 7 fights, with Ciryl Gane (66.5%) flagged as the largest divergence from public consensus (47.8% implied).
Read →UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs Bonfim: Model Analysis
Model projection across all 11 fights, with Yuneisy Duben (40.4%) flagged as the largest divergence from public consensus (1.4% implied).
Read →UFC Fight Night: Song vs Figueiredo: Model Analysis
Model projection across all 9 fights, with Cameron Smotherman (62.7%) flagged as the largest divergence from public consensus (31.4% implied).
Read →UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Costa: Model Analysis
Model projection across all 13 fights, with Tuco Tokkos (54.5%) flagged as the largest divergence from public consensus (5.5% implied).
Read →UFC 328: Chimaev vs Strickland: Model Analysis
Model projection across all 11 fights, with Tatsuro Taira (52.9%) flagged as the largest divergence from public consensus (16.7% implied).
Read →