UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland: Model Analysis

Event: UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland First fight: May 9 2026, 20:00 UTC Card scope: 14 fights, lines locked at posted time Methodology: Honest Validation Protocol Model accuracy: Performance

Where the model diverges from consensus

Two matchups show the largest gap between our projected win probability and the public consensus.

Tatsuro Taira vs Joshua Van. Public consensus implies Tatsuro Taira at 16.7%. Our model projects 52.9%. A 36-point gap, with Tatsuro Taira materially underrated by the market.

Djorden Santos vs Baisangur Susurkaev. Public consensus implies Djorden Santos at 15.4%. Our model projects 40.6%. A 25-point gap, with Djorden Santos materially underrated by the market.

Full card projection

Matchup notes

Bogdan Guskov vs Jan Blachowicz. Bogdan Guskov enters 4-1 in his last 5; Jan Blachowicz is 2-3. Recent-form trajectory tilts the matchup. Bogdan Guskov outpaces Jan Blachowicz on strike volume (4.6 vs 3.5 per minute).

Clayton Carpenter vs Jose Ochoa. Style symmetry between Jose Ochoa and Clayton Carpenter. The model declines to favor either side beyond noise.

Ateba Gautier vs Ozzy Diaz. Ateba Gautier enters 5-0 in his last 5; Ozzy Diaz is 1-2. Recent-form trajectory tilts the matchup. Ateba Gautier absorbs notably less (2.9 vs 7.2 per minute), projecting better damage profile through three rounds.

Baisangur Susurkaev vs Djorden Santos. Baisangur Susurkaev’s grappling pressure (2.8 takedowns / 15 min) projects to neutralize Djorden Santos’s striking lane. Baisangur Susurkaev enters 3-0 in his last 5; Djorden Santos is 1-2. Recent-form trajectory tilts the matchup.

Marco Tulio vs Roman Kopylov. Style symmetry between Roman Kopylov and Marco Tulio. The model declines to favor either side beyond noise.

Pat Sabatini vs William Gomis. William Gomis outpaces Pat Sabatini on strike volume (3.5 vs 1.7 per minute).

Sean Brady vs Joaquin Buckley. Sean Brady enters 5-0 in his last 5; Joaquin Buckley is 2-3. Recent-form trajectory tilts the matchup. Sean Brady holds the takedown-rate edge (3.5 vs 1.5 per 15 min).

King Green vs Jeremy Stephens. King Green enters 5-0 in his last 5; Jeremy Stephens is 2-3. Recent-form trajectory tilts the matchup. King Green outpaces Jeremy Stephens on strike volume (6.4 vs 3.1 per minute).

Joel Alvarez vs Yaroslav Amosov. Yaroslav Amosov holds the takedown-rate edge (4.6 vs 0.2 per 15 min).

Grant Dawson vs Mateusz Rebecki. Grant Dawson enters 5-0 in his last 5; Mateusz Rebecki is 3-2. Recent-form trajectory tilts the matchup. Grant Dawson absorbs notably less (2.1 vs 4.7 per minute), projecting better damage profile through three rounds.

Jared Gordon vs Jim Miller. Jared Gordon outpaces Jim Miller on strike volume (5.6 vs 2.9 per minute).

Tatsuro Taira vs Joshua Van. Style symmetry between Tatsuro Taira and Joshua Van. The model declines to favor either side beyond noise.

Khamzat Chimaev vs Sean Strickland. Khamzat Chimaev’s grappling pressure (5.3 takedowns / 15 min) projects to neutralize Sean Strickland’s striking lane. Khamzat Chimaev holds the takedown-rate edge (5.3 vs 0.7 per 15 min).

How to read this

Projections come from our production UFC ensemble model, refreshed nightly. The model combines fighter performance metrics, simulation-based fight modeling, and historical strength of schedule, with Bayesian shrinkage applied to fighters with limited recent data.

Confidence labels reflect projection spread:

• High: pick probability above 65%
• Medium: pick probability between 55 and 65%
• Coin flip: pick probability below 55%

Note: this analysis does not incorporate fight-week intelligence such as late injury reports or weight cut difficulty. Those signals are tracked through a separate process.

Model accuracy

Cross-validated across 3 independent test seasons in our 2026-04-30 audit:

• Straight-up winner accuracy across all fights: 76.7%
• Highest-confidence subset (n=207): 69.1% directional accuracy, 95% confidence interval [62.5%, 75.0%]

Full validation methodology and per-season breakdowns: Honest Validation Protocol.

Results

Card record: 8-5 across 13 settled fights.

For research and informational purposes only. Probabilities reflect model output and may diverge from realized outcomes.