The scoreboard
doesn't lie.
We track every prediction we make. No cherry-picking. No revisionist history. Just a running record of how our models perform against the market, updated continuously.
Pre-registered before NFL Week 1 2026 under the Honest Validation Protocol. Signed and dated at /methodology/2026-27-predictions. Lower bound is the figure to plan and size against; predictions evaluated against closing line at primary sharp market; all results are out-of-sample.
All numbers are walk-forward out-of-sample. No in-sample contamination. Vegas baseline: ~52.4%.
1,283 games
simulated.
Michigan over UConn (69-63). Simulator had Michigan -2.9
Season accuracy: 853/1,283 straight up, 469/704 ATS, 348/704 O/U. NCAA Tournament: 52/66 correct predictions across all rounds.
Where the
edge showed up.
Maycee Barber -183 vs Alexa Grasso (Mar 28). HIGH confidence pick that lost by KO R1.
Led to post-mortem fixes: KO rate floor, quality-of-loss weighting, and skill-usage gap modeling.
1,176 games.
28.9M simulations.
The 63.2% headline that previously appeared here is superseded. The April 2026 Honest Validation Protocol audit re-litigated every published win-rate VAR had ever cited and retracted any that didn't pass the eight-rule bar (walk-forward across at least three independent test seasons; Beta-Binomial 95% credible-interval lower bound on every cite; pre-registered ship gates; independent samples; empirical CLV haircut; block-bootstrap bankroll sim; memory hygiene; production-code-path verification). The pre-registered NFL PRIME spread tier above is what survives.
We publish this correction because it's the kind of transparency that separates serious analytics operations from black-box pick services. The full protocol is at /methodology/protocol; the live application is the pre-registration linked above.
All performance metrics are evaluated against closing lines, the sharpest available market signal, rather than opening lines. This is the honest test.
Closing Line Value (CLV) is the gold standard for measuring predictive edge because it captures the final consensus of all market information. A model that consistently beats the closing line is generating real alpha, not exploiting stale openers.
Why we
publish this.
Most analytics companies don't show you their track record. We do, because edge is verifiable, and because the clients we want to work with know the difference between a real model and a marketing claim.
Live NFL
forward proof.
The 2026-27 NFL season is the first publicly-verifiable forward test of VAR's model. The two tiers under public pre-registration are shown below with their validated backtest figures and their forward (live) progress. Every PRIME-tier pick appears here within 24 hours of the game ending. Updates append-only.
|edge| ≥ 6- Wk4: CI lower bound ≥ 50% at n ≥ 10 → green; below → yellow flag + 24h postmortem
- Wk9: CI lower bound ≥ 52.4% at n ≥ 20 → green; below → amber + tier may move to in-calibration
- Wk18: CI lower bound ≥ 52.4% at season end → green; below → red, claim withdrawn from leaderboard
|edge| ≥ 7- Wk4: CI lower bound ≥ 50% at n ≥ 10 → green; below → yellow flag + 24h postmortem
- Wk9: CI lower bound ≥ 52.4% at n ≥ 20 → green; below → amber + tier may move to in-calibration
- Wk18: CI lower bound ≥ 52.4% at season end → green; below → red, claim withdrawn from leaderboard
Pick log
No graded picks yet. The 2026-27 NFL regular season opens in September 2026. Once /api/edges returns PRIME-tier signals, picks publish at /research/picks and results appear here within 24 hours of each game ending.
Tier rows show the validated backtest alongside the running forward (live) figures. Forward columns are blank until games are graded.
Every PRIME-tier bet that fires per /methodology/2026-27-predictions appears here within 24 hours of the game ending. No historical edits — all changes are append-only.
Each pick links to its corresponding research post under /research/picks where the pre-game rationale lives.
Break-even at -110 closing line: 52.4%.