UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs Bonfim: Model Analysis

Event: UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs Bonfim Posted: June 10, 2026 · VAR Research First fight: June 7 2026, 00:00 UTC Card scope: 11 fights, lines locked at posted time Methodology: Methodology Model accuracy: Performance

Where the model diverges from consensus

One matchup shows a meaningful gap between our projected win probability and the public consensus.

Yuneisy Duben vs Jeisla Chaves. Public consensus implies Yuneisy Duben at 1.4%. Our model projects 40.4%. A 39-point gap, with Yuneisy Duben materially underrated by the market.

Full card projection

Matchup notes

Belal Muhammad vs Gabriel Bonfim. Gabriel Bonfim enters 4-1 in his last 5; Belal Muhammad is 2-3. Recent-form trajectory tilts the matchup.

Brendan Allen vs Edmen Shahbazyan. Model projects Brendan Allen (67.7%) over Edmen Shahbazyan; thin career data on both sides limits the narrative beyond the projection itself.

Bryce Mitchell vs Santiago Luna. Bryce Mitchell enters 5-0 in his last 5; Santiago Luna is 2-1. Recent-form trajectory tilts the matchup. Bryce Mitchell absorbs notably less (1.6 vs 3.8 per minute), projecting better damage profile through three rounds.

Iwo Baraniewski vs Junior Tafa. Iwo Baraniewski outpaces Junior Tafa on strike volume (14.3 vs 3.4 per minute).

Matt Schnell vs Alessandro Costa. Alessandro Costa’s takedown defense (83%) is the largest gap on the board against Matt Schnell’s (43%).

Marcus McGhee vs John Yannis. Marcus McGhee enters 5-0 in his last 5; John Yannis is 1-2. Recent-form trajectory tilts the matchup. Marcus McGhee outpaces John Yannis on strike volume (5.5 vs 0.0 per minute).

Bruno Silva vs Edgar Chairez. Edgar Chairez enters 3-2 in his last 5; Bruno Silva is 1-4. Recent-form trajectory tilts the matchup.

Priscila Cachoeira vs Chelsea Chandler. Priscila Cachoeira’s takedown defense (69%) is the largest gap on the board against Chelsea Chandler’s (28%).

Jordan Leavitt vs Joanderson Brito. Jordan Leavitt’s striking defense (57%) measurably outperforms Joanderson Brito’s (44%).

Jeisla Chaves vs Yuneisy Duben. Jeisla Chaves absorbs notably less (4.3 vs 10.8 per minute), projecting better damage profile through three rounds.

Ketlen Souza vs Ariane Carnelossi. Ketlen Souza outpaces Ariane Carnelossi on strike volume (4.0 vs 2.6 per minute).

How to read this

Projections come from VAR’s production UFC ensemble model, refreshed nightly. The model combines fighter performance metrics, simulation-based fight modeling, and historical opponent-strength signal, with conservative treatment of fighters who have limited recent data.

Confidence labels reflect projection spread:

• High: pick probability above 65%
• Medium: pick probability between 55 and 65%
• Coin flip: pick probability below 55%

Note: this analysis does not incorporate fight-week intelligence such as late injury reports or weight cut difficulty. Those signals are tracked through a separate process.

Model accuracy

Cross-validated across 3 independent test seasons in our 2026-04-30 audit:

• Straight-up winner accuracy across all fights: 76.7%
• Highest-confidence subset (n=207): 69.1% directional accuracy, 95% confidence interval [62.5%, 75.0%]

Full validation methodology and per-season breakdowns: Methodology.

Results

Card record: 9-2 across 11 settled fights.

For research and informational purposes only. Probabilities reflect model output and may diverge from realized outcomes.