UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs Bonfim: Model Analysis
Event: UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs Bonfim Posted: June 2, 2026 · VAR Research First fight: June 7 2026, 00:00 UTC Card scope: 10 fights, lines locked at posted time Methodology: Methodology Model accuracy: Performance
Where the model diverges from consensus
One matchup shows a meaningful gap between our projected win probability and the public consensus.
Yuneisy Duben vs Jeisla Chaves. Public consensus implies Yuneisy Duben at 19.8%. Our model projects 45.4%. A 26-point gap, with Yuneisy Duben materially underrated by the market.
Full card projection
| Matchup | Projection | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Belal Muhammad vs Gabriel Bonfim | Gabriel Bonfim 57.6% | Medium |
| Brendan Allen vs Edmen Shahbazyan | Brendan Allen 65.0% | Medium |
| Bryce Mitchell vs Santiago Luna | Bryce Mitchell 71.3% | High |
| Iwo Baraniewski vs Junior Tafa | Iwo Baraniewski 56.0% | Medium |
| Matt Schnell vs Alessandro Costa | Alessandro Costa 66.3% | High |
| Marcus McGhee vs John Yannis | Marcus McGhee 69.5% | High |
| Priscila Cachoeira vs Chelsea Chandler | Priscila Cachoeira 57.4% | Medium |
| Jordan Leavitt vs Joanderson Brito | Jordan Leavitt 56.4% | Medium |
| Jeisla Chaves vs Yuneisy Duben | Jeisla Chaves 54.6% | Coin flip |
| Ketlen Souza vs Ariane Carnelossi | Ketlen Souza 66.2% | High |
Matchup notes
Belal Muhammad vs Gabriel Bonfim. Model projects Gabriel Bonfim (57.6%) over Belal Muhammad; thin career data on both sides limits the narrative beyond the projection itself.
Brendan Allen vs Edmen Shahbazyan. Model projects Brendan Allen (65.0%) over Edmen Shahbazyan; thin career data on both sides limits the narrative beyond the projection itself.
Bryce Mitchell vs Santiago Luna. Bryce Mitchell absorbs notably less (1.6 vs 3.8 per minute), projecting better damage profile through three rounds.
Iwo Baraniewski vs Junior Tafa. Iwo Baraniewski outpaces Junior Tafa on strike volume (14.3 vs 3.4 per minute).
Matt Schnell vs Alessandro Costa. Alessandro Costa’s takedown defense (83%) is the largest gap on the board against Matt Schnell’s (43%).
Marcus McGhee vs John Yannis. Marcus McGhee outpaces John Yannis on strike volume (5.5 vs 0.0 per minute).
Priscila Cachoeira vs Chelsea Chandler. Priscila Cachoeira’s takedown defense (69%) is the largest gap on the board against Chelsea Chandler’s (28%).
Jordan Leavitt vs Joanderson Brito. Jordan Leavitt’s striking defense (57%) measurably outperforms Joanderson Brito’s (44%).
Jeisla Chaves vs Yuneisy Duben. Style symmetry between Jeisla Chaves and Yuneisy Duben. The model declines to favor either side beyond noise.
Ketlen Souza vs Ariane Carnelossi. Ketlen Souza outpaces Ariane Carnelossi on strike volume (4.0 vs 2.6 per minute).
How to read this
Projections come from VAR’s production UFC ensemble model, refreshed nightly. The model combines fighter performance metrics, simulation-based fight modeling, and historical opponent-strength signal, with conservative treatment of fighters who have limited recent data.
Confidence labels reflect projection spread:
- High: pick probability above 65%
- Medium: pick probability between 55 and 65%
- Coin flip: pick probability below 55%
Note: this analysis does not incorporate fight-week intelligence such as late injury reports or weight cut difficulty. Those signals are tracked through a separate process.
Model accuracy
Cross-validated across 3 independent test seasons in our 2026-04-30 audit:
- Straight-up winner accuracy across all fights: 76.7%
- Highest-confidence subset (n=207): 69.1% directional accuracy, 95% confidence interval [62.5%, 75.0%]
Full validation methodology and per-season breakdowns: Methodology.
Results
Populates after card concludes.
For research and informational purposes only. Probabilities reflect model output and may diverge from realized outcomes.
Results pending. Graded after the card concludes.