UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Costa: Model Analysis

Event: UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Costa Posted: May 20, 2026 · VAR Research First fight: May 17 2026, 00:00 UTC Card scope: 13 fights, lines locked at posted time Methodology: Methodology Model accuracy: Performance

Where the model diverges from consensus

Two matchups show the largest gap between our projected win probability and the public consensus.

Tuco Tokkos vs Ivan Erslan. Public consensus implies Tuco Tokkos at 5.5%. Our model projects 54.5%. A 49-point gap, with Tuco Tokkos materially underrated by the market.

Daniel Barez vs Luis Gurule. Public consensus implies Daniel Barez at 0.6%. Our model projects 46.0%. A 45-point gap, with Daniel Barez materially underrated by the market.

Full card projection

Matchup notes

Arnold Allen vs Melquizael Costa. Style symmetry between Melquizael Costa and Arnold Allen. The model declines to favor either side beyond noise.

Dooho Choi vs Daniel Santos. Style symmetry between Dooho Choi and Daniel Santos. The model declines to favor either side beyond noise.

Malcolm Wellmaker vs Juan Diaz. Style symmetry between Juan Diaz and Malcolm Wellmaker. The model declines to favor either side beyond noise.

Modestas Bukauskas vs Christian Edwards. Model projects Modestas Bukauskas (55.5%) over Christian Edwards; thin career data on both sides limits the narrative beyond the projection itself.

Timmy Cuamba vs Benardo Sopaj. Style symmetry between Benardo Sopaj and Timmy Cuamba. The model declines to favor either side beyond noise.

Nikolay Veretennikov vs Khaos Williams. Style symmetry between Nikolay Veretennikov and Khaos Williams. The model declines to favor either side beyond noise.

Tuco Tokkos vs Ivan Erslan. Style symmetry between Tuco Tokkos and Ivan Erslan. The model declines to favor either side beyond noise.

Tommy Gantt vs Artur Minev. Style symmetry between Artur Minev and Tommy Gantt. The model declines to favor either side beyond noise.

Ketlen Vieira vs Jacqueline Cavalcanti. Jacqueline Cavalcanti outpaces Ketlen Vieira on strike volume (5.7 vs 2.8 per minute).

Cody Brundage vs Andre Petroski. Andre Petroski’s takedown defense (86%) is the largest gap on the board against Cody Brundage’s (68%).

Alice Ardelean vs Polyana Viana. Alice Ardelean brings the cleaner striking and credible takedown defense (85%) to keep the fight standing. Alice Ardelean enters 3-2 in his last 5; Polyana Viana is 1-4. Recent-form trajectory tilts the matchup.

Daniel Barez vs Luis Gurule. Style symmetry between Luis Gurule and Daniel Barez. The model declines to favor either side beyond noise.

Shauna Bannon vs Nicolle Caliari. Shauna Bannon’s striking volume holds the advantage in a clear lane mismatch. Shauna Bannon absorbs notably less (3.8 vs 7.0 per minute), projecting better damage profile through three rounds.

How to read this

Projections come from VAR’s production UFC ensemble model, refreshed nightly. The model combines fighter performance metrics, simulation-based fight modeling, and historical opponent-strength signal, with conservative treatment of fighters who have limited recent data.

Confidence labels reflect projection spread:

• High: pick probability above 65%
• Medium: pick probability between 55 and 65%
• Coin flip: pick probability below 55%

Note: this analysis does not incorporate fight-week intelligence such as late injury reports or weight cut difficulty. Those signals are tracked through a separate process.

Model accuracy

Cross-validated across 3 independent test seasons in our 2026-04-30 audit:

• Straight-up winner accuracy across all fights: 76.7%
• Highest-confidence subset (n=207): 69.1% directional accuracy, 95% confidence interval [62.5%, 75.0%]

Full validation methodology and per-season breakdowns: Methodology.

Results

Card record: 4-6 across 10 settled fights.

For research and informational purposes only. Probabilities reflect model output and may diverge from realized outcomes.