UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Costa: Model Analysis

Event: UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Costa First fight: May 17 2026, 00:00 UTC Card scope: 11 fights, lines locked at posted time Methodology: Honest Validation Protocol Model accuracy: Performance

Full card projection

Matchup notes

Arnold Allen vs Melquizael Costa. Style symmetry between Melquizael Costa and Arnold Allen. The model declines to favor either side beyond noise.

Dooho Choi vs Daniel Santos. Daniel Santos’s grappling pressure (3.0 takedowns / 15 min) projects to neutralize Dooho Choi’s striking lane. Daniel Santos holds the takedown-rate edge (3.0 vs 1.4 per 15 min).

Malcolm Wellmaker vs Juan Diaz. Malcolm Wellmaker’s striking volume holds the advantage in a clear lane mismatch. Malcolm Wellmaker’s takedown defense (56%) is the largest gap on the board against Juan Diaz’s (0%).

Timothy Cuamba vs Benardo Sopaj. Model projects Benardo Sopaj (55.5%) over Timothy Cuamba; thin career data on both sides limits the narrative beyond the projection itself.

Nikolay Veretennikov vs Khaos Williams. Style symmetry between Nikolay Veretennikov and Khaos Williams. The model declines to favor either side beyond noise.

Tuco Tokkos vs Ivan Erslan. Style symmetry between Tuco Tokkos and Ivan Erslan. The model declines to favor either side beyond noise.

Ketlen Vieira vs Jacqueline Cavalcanti. Jacqueline Cavalcanti outpaces Ketlen Vieira on strike volume (5.7 vs 2.8 per minute).

Cody Brundage vs Andre Petroski. Andre Petroski enters 5-0 in his last 5; Cody Brundage is 2-3. Recent-form trajectory tilts the matchup. Andre Petroski’s takedown defense (86%) is the largest gap on the board against Cody Brundage’s (68%).

Alice Ardelean vs Polyana Viana. Alice Ardelean brings the cleaner striking and credible takedown defense (85%) to keep the fight standing. Alice Ardelean outpaces Polyana Viana on strike volume (7.3 vs 2.7 per minute).

Daniel Barez vs Luis Gurule. Style symmetry between Luis Gurule and Daniel Barez. The model declines to favor either side beyond noise.

Shauna Bannon vs Nicolle Caliari. Style symmetry between Shauna Bannon and Nicolle Caliari. The model declines to favor either side beyond noise.

How to read this

Projections come from our production UFC ensemble model, refreshed nightly. The model combines fighter performance metrics, simulation-based fight modeling, and historical strength of schedule, with Bayesian shrinkage applied to fighters with limited recent data.

Confidence labels reflect projection spread:

• High: pick probability above 65%
• Medium: pick probability between 55 and 65%
• Coin flip: pick probability below 55%

Note: this analysis does not incorporate fight-week intelligence such as late injury reports or weight cut difficulty. Those signals are tracked through a separate process.

Model accuracy

Cross-validated across 3 independent test seasons in our 2026-04-30 audit:

• Straight-up winner accuracy across all fights: 76.7%
• Highest-confidence subset (n=207): 69.1% directional accuracy, 95% confidence interval [62.5%, 75.0%]

Full validation methodology and per-season breakdowns: Honest Validation Protocol.

Results

Populates after card concludes.

For research and informational purposes only. Probabilities reflect model output and may diverge from realized outcomes.