UFC Fight Night: Song vs Figueiredo: Model Analysis

Event: UFC Fight Night: Song vs Figueiredo Posted: June 3, 2026 · VAR Research First fight: May 30 2026, 11:00 UTC Card scope: 9 fights, lines locked at posted time Methodology: Methodology Model accuracy: Performance

Where the model diverges from consensus

Two matchups show the largest gap between our projected win probability and the public consensus.

Cameron Smotherman vs Kai Asakura. Public consensus implies Cameron Smotherman at 31.4%. Our model projects 62.7%. A 31-point gap, with Cameron Smotherman materially underrated by the market.

Carlston Harris vs Jake Matthews. Public consensus implies Carlston Harris at 0.8%. Our model projects 30.5%. A 30-point gap, with Carlston Harris materially underrated by the market.

Full card projection

Matchup notes

Song Yadong vs Deiveson Figueiredo. Song Yadong brings the cleaner striking and credible takedown defense (73%) to keep the fight standing. Song Yadong outpaces Deiveson Figueiredo on strike volume (4.4 vs 2.6 per minute).

Zhang Mingyang vs Alonzo Menifield. Zhang Mingyang outpaces Alonzo Menifield on strike volume (7.7 vs 3.8 per minute).

Sergei Pavlovich vs Tallison Teixeira. Sergei Pavlovich enters 4-1 in his last 5; Tallison Teixeira is 2-2. Recent-form trajectory tilts the matchup. Sergei Pavlovich’s takedown defense (75%) is the largest gap on the board against Tallison Teixeira’s (0%).

Kai Asakura vs Cameron Smotherman. Cameron Smotherman outpaces Kai Asakura on strike volume (4.1 vs 2.3 per minute).

Jake Matthews vs Carlston Harris. Jake Matthews absorbs notably less (2.6 vs 3.5 per minute), projecting better damage profile through three rounds.

Alex Perez vs Sumudaerji. Style symmetry between Sumudaerji and Alex Perez. The model declines to favor either side beyond noise.

Aoriqileng vs Cody Haddon. Cody Haddon outpaces Aoriqileng on strike volume (9.2 vs 4.7 per minute).

Rei Tsuruya vs Luis Gurule. Rei Tsuruya’s grappling pressure (5.1 takedowns / 15 min) projects to neutralize Luis Gurule’s striking lane. Rei Tsuruya holds the takedown-rate edge (5.1 vs 0.6 per 15 min).

Loma Lookboonmee vs Jaqueline Amorim. Loma Lookboonmee outpaces Jaqueline Amorim on strike volume (3.7 vs 2.4 per minute).

How to read this

Projections come from VAR’s production UFC ensemble model, refreshed nightly. The model combines fighter performance metrics, simulation-based fight modeling, and historical opponent-strength signal, with conservative treatment of fighters who have limited recent data.

Confidence labels reflect projection spread:

• High: pick probability above 65%
• Medium: pick probability between 55 and 65%
• Coin flip: pick probability below 55%

Note: this analysis does not incorporate fight-week intelligence such as late injury reports or weight cut difficulty. Those signals are tracked through a separate process.

Model accuracy

Cross-validated across 3 independent test seasons in our 2026-04-30 audit:

• Straight-up winner accuracy across all fights: 76.7%
• Highest-confidence subset (n=207): 69.1% directional accuracy, 95% confidence interval [62.5%, 75.0%]

Full validation methodology and per-season breakdowns: Methodology.

Results

Card record: 5-3 across 8 settled fights.

For research and informational purposes only. Probabilities reflect model output and may diverge from realized outcomes.