Per-card
analysis.
Projected win probability for every fight on the card, with the two largest divergences from public consensus called out and per-pick results filled in once the card concludes. The full graded record of these pre-fight probabilities is on the performance page.
Live recordMethodology
UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Delgado: Model Analysis
Model projection across all 12 fights, with Jose Miguel Delgado (48.8%) flagged as the largest divergence from public consensus (18.9% implied).
Read →UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs Parnasse: Model Analysis
Model projection across all 12 fights, with Nathaniel Wood (76.9%) flagged as the largest divergence from public consensus (8.6% implied).
Read →UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs Song: Model Analysis
Model projection across all 11 fights, with Nilson Rojas (34.2%) flagged as the largest divergence from public consensus (10.9% implied).
Read →UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs Rodrigues: Model Analysis
Model projection across all 13 fights, with Serghei Spivac (45.0%) flagged as the largest divergence from public consensus (2.8% implied).
Read →UFC 330: Makhachev vs Machado Garry: Model Analysis
Model projection across all 12 fights, with Ian Machado Garry (46.6%) flagged as the largest divergence from public consensus (14.6% implied).
Read →UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld: Model Analysis
Model projection across all 9 fights, with Darren Elkins (39.2%) flagged as the largest divergence from public consensus (9.7% implied).
Read →UFC Fight Night: Medic vs Rodriguez: Model Analysis
Model projection across all 14 fights, with Dusko Todorovic (72.6%) flagged as the largest divergence from public consensus (41.9% implied).
Read →UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs Guskov: Model Analysis
Model projection across all 11 fights, with Mike Davis (42.0%) flagged as the largest divergence from public consensus (0.7% implied).
Read →UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs Usman: Model Analysis
Model projection across all 11 fights, with Anna Melisano (55.8%) flagged as the largest divergence from public consensus (17.7% implied).
Read →UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2: Model Analysis
Model projection across all 11 fights, with Kai Kamaka III (48.2%) flagged as the largest divergence from public consensus (28.5% implied).
Read →UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs Torres: Model Analysis
Model projection across all 12 fights, with Michel Pereira (45.1%) flagged as the largest divergence from public consensus (9.4% implied).
Read →UFC Fight Night: Kape vs Horiguchi: Model Analysis
Model projection across all 11 fights, with Karol Rosa (47.4%) flagged as the largest divergence from public consensus (1.1% implied).
Read →UFC Freedom 250: Model Analysis
Model projection across all 7 fights, with Ciryl Gane (66.5%) flagged as the largest divergence from public consensus (47.8% implied).
Read →UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs Bonfim: Model Analysis
Model projection across all 11 fights, with Yuneisy Duben (40.4%) flagged as the largest divergence from public consensus (1.4% implied).
Read →UFC Fight Night: Song vs Figueiredo: Model Analysis
Model projection across all 9 fights, with Cameron Smotherman (62.7%) flagged as the largest divergence from public consensus (31.4% implied).
Read →UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Costa: Model Analysis
Model projection across all 13 fights, with Tuco Tokkos (54.5%) flagged as the largest divergence from public consensus (5.5% implied).
Read →UFC 328: Chimaev vs Strickland: Model Analysis
Model projection across all 11 fights, with Tatsuro Taira (52.9%) flagged as the largest divergence from public consensus (16.7% implied).
Read →