Per-card
analysis.
Projected win probability for every fight on the card, with the two largest divergences from public consensus called out and per-pick results filled in once the card concludes. The full graded record of these pre-fight probabilities is on the performance page.
Live recordMethodology
UFC 333: Volkanovski vs Evloev: Model Analysis
Model projection across all 14 fights, with Dominick Reyes (53.8%) flagged as the largest divergence from public consensus (37.7% implied).
Read →UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs Malott: Model Analysis
Model projection across all 12 fights, with Tanner Boser (56.9%) flagged as the largest divergence from public consensus (36.3% implied). Corrected 2026-10-22: the first version quoted prices recorded after the bouts began.
Read →UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Duncan: Model Analysis
Model projection across all 11 fights, with Otari Tanzilovi (61.5%) flagged as the largest divergence from public consensus (37.3% implied). Corrected 2026-10-22: an update after the card quoted prices recorded after the bouts began.
Read →UFC 332: Silva vs Wang: Model Analysis
Model projection across all 14 fights, with King Green (71.8%) flagged as the largest divergence from public consensus (38.4% implied). Corrected 2026-10-22: the first version led with a projection made without either fighter's career statistics.
Read →UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs Barcelos: Model Analysis
Model projection across all 10 fights, with Raoni Barcelos (64.7%) flagged as the largest divergence from public consensus (44.8% implied).
Read →Van vs Pantoja 2: Model Analysis
Model projection across all 12 fights, with JooSang Yoo (66.2%) flagged as the largest divergence from public consensus (20.9% implied).
Read →UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Delgado: Model Analysis
Model projection across all 11 fights, with Drakkar Klose (43.5%) flagged as the largest divergence from public consensus (20.7% implied).
Read →UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs Parnasse: Model Analysis
Model projection across all 12 fights, with Nathaniel Wood (76.9%) flagged as the largest divergence from public consensus (8.6% implied).
Read →UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs Song: Model Analysis
Model projection across all 11 fights, with Nilson Rojas (34.2%) flagged as the largest divergence from public consensus (10.9% implied).
Read →UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs Rodrigues: Model Analysis
Model projection across all 13 fights, with Serghei Spivac (45.0%) flagged as the largest divergence from public consensus (2.8% implied).
Read →UFC 330: Makhachev vs Machado Garry: Model Analysis
Model projection across all 12 fights, with Ian Machado Garry (46.6%) flagged as the largest divergence from public consensus (14.6% implied).
Read →UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld: Model Analysis
Model projection across all 9 fights, with Darren Elkins (39.2%) flagged as the largest divergence from public consensus (9.7% implied).
Read →UFC Fight Night: Medic vs Rodriguez: Model Analysis
Model projection across all 14 fights, with Dusko Todorovic (72.6%) flagged as the largest divergence from public consensus (41.9% implied).
Read →UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs Guskov: Model Analysis
Model projection across all 11 fights, with Mike Davis (42.0%) flagged as the largest divergence from public consensus (0.7% implied).
Read →UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs Usman: Model Analysis
Model projection across all 11 fights, with Anna Melisano (55.8%) flagged as the largest divergence from public consensus (17.7% implied).
Read →UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2: Model Analysis
Model projection across all 11 fights, with Kai Kamaka III (48.2%) flagged as the largest divergence from public consensus (28.5% implied).
Read →UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs Torres: Model Analysis
Model projection across all 12 fights, with Michel Pereira (45.1%) flagged as the largest divergence from public consensus (9.4% implied).
Read →UFC Fight Night: Kape vs Horiguchi: Model Analysis
Model projection across all 11 fights, with Karol Rosa (47.4%) flagged as the largest divergence from public consensus (1.1% implied).
Read →UFC Freedom 250: Model Analysis
Model projection across all 7 fights, with Ciryl Gane (66.5%) flagged as the largest divergence from public consensus (47.8% implied).
Read →UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs Bonfim: Model Analysis
Model projection across all 11 fights, with Yuneisy Duben (40.4%) flagged as the largest divergence from public consensus (1.4% implied).
Read →UFC Fight Night: Song vs Figueiredo: Model Analysis
Model projection across all 9 fights, with Cameron Smotherman (62.7%) flagged as the largest divergence from public consensus (31.4% implied).
Read →UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Costa: Model Analysis
Model projection across all 13 fights, with Tuco Tokkos (54.5%) flagged as the largest divergence from public consensus (5.5% implied).
Read →UFC 328: Chimaev vs Strickland: Model Analysis
Model projection across all 11 fights, with Tatsuro Taira (52.9%) flagged as the largest divergence from public consensus (16.7% implied).
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