UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs Rodrigues: Model Analysis

Event: UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs Rodrigues Posted: August 26, 2026 · VAR Research First fight: August 23 2026, 00:00 UTC Card scope: 13 fights, lines locked at posted time Methodology: Methodology Model accuracy: Performance

Where the model diverges from consensus

Two matchups show the largest gap between our projected win probability and the public consensus.

Serghei Spivac vs Vitor Petrino. Public consensus implies Serghei Spivac at 2.8%. Our model projects 45.0%. A 42-point gap, with Serghei Spivac materially underrated by the market.

Terrance Chatman vs Anthony Wint. Public consensus implies Terrance Chatman at 9.9%. Our model projects 46.8%. A 37-point gap, with Terrance Chatman materially underrated by the market.

Full card projection

Matchup notes

Anthony Hernandez vs Gregory Rodrigues. Anthony Hernandez holds the takedown-rate edge (5.9 vs 1.9 per 15 min).

Serghei Spivac vs Vitor Petrino. In a wrestling-heavy matchup, Vitor Petrino’s superior takedown defense (79% vs 63%) projects to dictate position. Vitor Petrino enters 5-0 in his last 5; Serghei Spivac is 2-3. Recent-form trajectory tilts the matchup.

Roman Dolidze vs Reinier de Ridder. Reinier de Ridder enters 5-0 in his last 5; Roman Dolidze is 2-3. Recent-form trajectory tilts the matchup. Reinier de Ridder holds the takedown-rate edge (2.7 vs 1.0 per 15 min).

MarQuel Mederos vs Mason Jones. Style symmetry between Mason Jones and MarQuel Mederos. The model declines to favor either side beyond noise.

Carli Judice vs Jeisla Chaves. Style symmetry between Jeisla Chaves and Carli Judice. The model declines to favor either side beyond noise.

Terrance Chatman vs Anthony Wint. Style symmetry between Anthony Wint and Terrance Chatman. The model declines to favor either side beyond noise.

Jamall Emmers vs Lerryan Douglas. Lerryan Douglas’s striking volume holds the advantage in a clear lane mismatch. Lerryan Douglas outpaces Jamall Emmers on strike volume (11.7 vs 5.1 per minute).

Kennedy Nzechukwu vs Shamil Gaziev. Kennedy Nzechukwu outpaces Shamil Gaziev on strike volume (5.0 vs 2.6 per minute).

Chris Padilla vs Nasrat Haqparast. Striker-vs-striker matchup, with Chris Padilla’s accuracy edge (54% vs 45%) doing the work. Chris Padilla enters 5-0 in his last 5; Nasrat Haqparast is 3-2. Recent-form trajectory tilts the matchup.

Marcio Barbosa vs Ryan Kuse. Model projects Marcio Barbosa (62.9%) over Ryan Kuse; thin career data on both sides limits the narrative beyond the projection itself.

Gauge Young vs Stan Dorsainvil. Model projects Gauge Young (58.5%) over Stan Dorsainvil; thin career data on both sides limits the narrative beyond the projection itself.

Wes Schultz vs Jackson McVey. Wes Schultz’s grappling pressure (4.5 takedowns / 15 min) projects to neutralize Jackson McVey’s striking lane. Wes Schultz holds the takedown-rate edge (4.5 vs 0.0 per 15 min).

Shanelle Dyer vs Elise Reed. Shanelle Dyer outpaces Elise Reed on strike volume (7.7 vs 3.4 per minute).

How to read this

Projections come from VAR’s production UFC ensemble model, refreshed nightly. The model combines fighter performance metrics, simulation-based fight modeling, and historical opponent-strength signal, with conservative treatment of fighters who have limited recent data.

Confidence labels reflect projection spread:

• High: pick probability above 65%
• Medium: pick probability between 55 and 65%
• Coin flip: pick probability below 55%

Note: this analysis does not incorporate fight-week intelligence such as late injury reports or weight cut difficulty. Those signals are tracked through a separate process.

Model accuracy

Cross-validated across 3 independent test seasons in our 2026-04-30 audit:

• Straight-up winner accuracy across all fights: 76.7%
• Highest-confidence subset (n=207): 69.1% directional accuracy, 95% confidence interval [62.5%, 75.0%]

Full validation methodology and per-season breakdowns: Methodology.

Results

Card record: 5-7 across 12 settled fights.

For research and informational purposes only. Probabilities reflect model output and may diverge from realized outcomes.