UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Delgado: Model Analysis

Event: UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Delgado Posted: September 16, 2026 · VAR Research First fight: September 12 2026, 21:00 UTC Card scope: 11 fights, lines locked at posted time Methodology: Methodology Model accuracy: Performance

Where the model diverges from consensus

One matchup shows a meaningful gap between our projected win probability and the public consensus.

Drakkar Klose vs Tommy Gantt. Public consensus implies Drakkar Klose at 20.7%. Our model projects 43.5%. A 23-point gap, with Drakkar Klose materially underrated by the market.

Full card projection

Matchup notes

Brandon Moreno vs Joseph Morales. Brandon Moreno enters 4-1 in his last 5; Joseph Morales is 2-3. Recent-form trajectory tilts the matchup. Brandon Moreno outpaces Joseph Morales on strike volume (3.8 vs 2.0 per minute).

Tommy McMillen vs Marwan Rahiki. Style symmetry between Marwan Rahiki and Tommy McMillen. The model declines to favor either side beyond noise.

Manon Fiorot vs Alexa Grasso. Striker-vs-striker matchup with Manon Fiorot carrying the volume edge (5.7 vs 4.1 sig strikes per minute). Manon Fiorot outpaces Alexa Grasso on strike volume (5.7 vs 4.1 per minute).

Waldo Cortes Acosta vs Curtis Blaydes. Style symmetry between Waldo Cortes Acosta and Curtis Blaydes. The model declines to favor either side beyond noise.

David Martinez vs Dan Ige. David Martinez outpaces Dan Ige on strike volume (4.8 vs 3.6 per minute).

Tim Elliott vs Edgar Chairez. Model projects Edgar Chairez (64.5%) over Tim Elliott; thin career data on both sides limits the narrative beyond the projection itself.

Ignacio Bahamondes vs Muslim Salikhov. Ignacio Bahamondes outpaces Muslim Salikhov on strike volume (6.5 vs 3.4 per minute).

Yousri Belgaroui vs Djorden Santos. Striker-vs-striker matchup, with Yousri Belgaroui’s accuracy edge (66% vs 44%) doing the work. Yousri Belgaroui enters 3-0 in his last 5; Djorden Santos is 1-3. Recent-form trajectory tilts the matchup.

Drakkar Klose vs Tommy Gantt. Tommy Gantt’s grappling pressure (10.8 takedowns / 15 min) projects to neutralize Drakkar Klose’s striking lane. Tommy Gantt holds the takedown-rate edge (10.8 vs 1.5 per 15 min).

Rafa Garcia vs Rongzhu. Rafa Garcia’s grappling pressure (3.1 takedowns / 15 min) projects to neutralize Rongzhu’s striking lane. Rafa Garcia holds the takedown-rate edge (3.1 vs 1.4 per 15 min).

JJ Aldrich vs Regina Tarin. Regina Tarin outpaces JJ Aldrich on strike volume (7.6 vs 4.0 per minute).

How to read this

Projections come from VAR’s production UFC ensemble model, refreshed nightly. The model combines fighter performance metrics, simulation-based fight modeling, and historical opponent-strength signal, with conservative treatment of fighters who have limited recent data.

Confidence labels reflect projection spread:

• High: pick probability above 65%
• Medium: pick probability between 55 and 65%
• Coin flip: pick probability below 55%

Note: this analysis does not incorporate fight-week intelligence such as late injury reports or weight cut difficulty. Those signals are tracked through a separate process.

Model accuracy — live forward record

Every fight the production model priced before the bell since 2026-05-30, graded against the official result (n=174, through 2026-09-13; as of 2026-09-16):

• Straight-up winner accuracy: 66.7% (95% interval [59.4%, 73.4%])
• On the 168 fights with a closing line: the market’s favorite won 73.8%; Brier score model 0.218 vs de-vigged market 0.171 — the market is better calibrated.
• No betting tier has a validated positive return. VAR does not present UFC as a betting edge.

Full record, per card, with the withdrawn validation noted: Performance.

Results

Card record: 6-5 across 11 settled fights.

For research and informational purposes only. Probabilities reflect model output and may diverge from realized outcomes.