UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs Guskov: Model Analysis

Event: UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs Guskov Posted: July 21, 2026 · VAR Research First fight: July 25 2026, 16:00 UTC Card scope: 12 fights, lines locked at posted time Methodology: Methodology Model accuracy: Performance

Where the model diverges from consensus

Two matchups show the largest gap between our projected win probability and the public consensus.

Cody Gibson vs Abdul Hussein. Public consensus implies Cody Gibson at 22.1%. Our model projects 56.1%. A 34-point gap, with Cody Gibson materially underrated by the market.

Santiago Ponzinibbio vs Sam Patterson. Public consensus implies Santiago Ponzinibbio at 19.3%. Our model projects 43.9%. A 25-point gap, with Santiago Ponzinibbio materially underrated by the market.

Full card projection

Matchup notes

Magomed Ankalaev vs Bogdan Guskov. Magomed Ankalaev absorbs notably less (2.6 vs 4.1 per minute), projecting better damage profile through three rounds.

Steve Erceg vs Ramazan Temirov. Style symmetry between Steve Erceg and Ramazan Temirov. The model declines to favor either side beyond noise.

Islam Dulatov vs Wellington Turman. Islam Dulatov outpaces Wellington Turman on strike volume (8.8 vs 3.2 per minute).

Magomed Zaynukov vs Damian Rzepecki. Model projects Magomed Zaynukov (56.0%) over Damian Rzepecki; thin career data on both sides limits the narrative beyond the projection itself.

Rizvan Kuniev vs Tyrell Fortune. Rizvan Kuniev outpaces Tyrell Fortune on strike volume (3.9 vs 0.0 per minute).

Ismael Bonfim vs Axel Sola. Ismael Bonfim outpaces Axel Sola on strike volume (5.5 vs 3.7 per minute).

Valter Walker vs Thomas Petersen. Valter Walker holds the takedown-rate edge (5.7 vs 3.7 per 15 min).

Dustin Jacoby vs Muhammad Said. Model projects Dustin Jacoby (63.2%) over Muhammad Said; thin career data on both sides limits the narrative beyond the projection itself.

Santiago Ponzinibbio vs Sam Patterson. Sam Patterson’s grappling-vs-striking matchup tilts the projection.

Magomed Tuchalov vs Brendson Ribeiro. Model projects Magomed Tuchalov (65.1%) over Brendson Ribeiro; thin career data on both sides limits the narrative beyond the projection itself.

Nurullo Aliev vs Mike Davis. Nurullo Aliev absorbs notably less (1.6 vs 5.2 per minute), projecting better damage profile through three rounds.

Cody Gibson vs Abdul Hussein. Model projects Cody Gibson (56.1%) over Abdul Hussein; thin career data on both sides limits the narrative beyond the projection itself.

How to read this

Projections come from VAR’s production UFC ensemble model, refreshed nightly. The model combines fighter performance metrics, simulation-based fight modeling, and historical opponent-strength signal, with conservative treatment of fighters who have limited recent data.

Confidence labels reflect projection spread:

• High: pick probability above 65%
• Medium: pick probability between 55 and 65%
• Coin flip: pick probability below 55%

Note: this analysis does not incorporate fight-week intelligence such as late injury reports or weight cut difficulty. Those signals are tracked through a separate process.

Model accuracy

Cross-validated across 3 independent test seasons in our 2026-04-30 audit:

• Straight-up winner accuracy across all fights: 76.7%
• Highest-confidence subset (n=207): 69.1% directional accuracy, 95% confidence interval [62.5%, 75.0%]

Full validation methodology and per-season breakdowns: Methodology.

Results

Populates after card concludes.

For research and informational purposes only. Probabilities reflect model output and may diverge from realized outcomes.