UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs Usman: Model Analysis

Event: UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs Usman Posted: July 22, 2026 · VAR Research First fight: July 19 2026, 00:00 UTC Card scope: 11 fights, lines locked at posted time Methodology: Methodology Model accuracy: Performance

Where the model diverges from consensus

Two matchups show the largest gap between our projected win probability and the public consensus.

Anna Melisano vs Dione Barbosa. Public consensus implies Anna Melisano at 17.7%. Our model projects 55.8%. A 38-point gap, with Anna Melisano materially underrated by the market.

Tabatha Ricci vs Fatima Kline. Public consensus implies Tabatha Ricci at 16.6%. Our model projects 37.9%. A 21-point gap, with Tabatha Ricci materially underrated by the market.

Full card projection

Matchup notes

Dricus Du Plessis vs Kamaru Usman. Dricus Du Plessis outpaces Kamaru Usman on strike volume (5.2 vs 4.2 per minute).

Jared Cannonier vs Christian Leroy Duncan. Striker-vs-striker matchup, with Christian Leroy Duncan’s accuracy edge (57% vs 49%) doing the work. Christian Leroy Duncan enters 4-1 in his last 5; Jared Cannonier is 2-3. Recent-form trajectory tilts the matchup.

Chase Hooper vs Mitch Ramirez. Chase Hooper enters 3-2 in his last 5; Mitch Ramirez is 0-3. Recent-form trajectory tilts the matchup. Chase Hooper holds the takedown-rate edge (2.5 vs 0.6 per 15 min).

Tabatha Ricci vs Fatima Kline. Fatima Kline enters 4-1 in his last 5; Tabatha Ricci is 2-3. Recent-form trajectory tilts the matchup. Fatima Kline absorbs notably less (2.7 vs 5.2 per minute), projecting better damage profile through three rounds.

Tommy McMillen vs Alberto Montes. Tommy McMillen brings the cleaner striking and credible takedown defense (83%) to keep the fight standing. Tommy McMillen outpaces Alberto Montes on strike volume (7.5 vs 5.0 per minute).

Austin Bashi vs Jose Miguel Delgado. Model projects Jose Miguel Delgado (62.0%) over Austin Bashi; thin career data on both sides limits the narrative beyond the projection itself.

Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs Seokhyeon Ko. Seokhyeon Ko absorbs notably less (1.4 vs 3.7 per minute), projecting better damage profile through three rounds.

Levi Rodrigues Jr. vs Felipe Franco. Levi Rodrigues Jr. brings the cleaner striking and credible takedown defense (100%) to keep the fight standing. Levi Rodrigues Jr. outpaces Felipe Franco on strike volume (4.5 vs 2.2 per minute).

Alden Coria vs Stewart Nicoll. Alden Coria enters 3-0 in his last 5; Stewart Nicoll is 0-4. Recent-form trajectory tilts the matchup. Alden Coria absorbs notably less (2.4 vs 6.7 per minute), projecting better damage profile through three rounds.

RJ Harris vs Alvin Hines. Model projects RJ Harris (67.3%) over Alvin Hines; thin career data on both sides limits the narrative beyond the projection itself.

Anna Melisano vs Dione Barbosa. Model projects Anna Melisano (55.8%) over Dione Barbosa; thin career data on both sides limits the narrative beyond the projection itself.

How to read this

Projections come from VAR’s production UFC ensemble model, refreshed nightly. The model combines fighter performance metrics, simulation-based fight modeling, and historical opponent-strength signal, with conservative treatment of fighters who have limited recent data.

Confidence labels reflect projection spread:

• High: pick probability above 65%
• Medium: pick probability between 55 and 65%
• Coin flip: pick probability below 55%

Note: this analysis does not incorporate fight-week intelligence such as late injury reports or weight cut difficulty. Those signals are tracked through a separate process.

Model accuracy

Cross-validated across 3 independent test seasons in our 2026-04-30 audit:

• Straight-up winner accuracy across all fights: 76.7%
• Highest-confidence subset (n=207): 69.1% directional accuracy, 95% confidence interval [62.5%, 75.0%]

Full validation methodology and per-season breakdowns: Methodology.

Results

Card record: 8-3 across 11 settled fights.

For research and informational purposes only. Probabilities reflect model output and may diverge from realized outcomes.