UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs Parnasse: Model Analysis

Event: UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs Parnasse Posted: September 9, 2026 · VAR Research First fight: September 5 2026, 19:00 UTC Card scope: 12 fights, lines locked at posted time Methodology: Methodology Model accuracy: Performance

Where the model diverges from consensus

Two matchups show the largest gap between our projected win probability and the public consensus.

Nathaniel Wood vs Pavel Andrusca. Public consensus implies Nathaniel Wood at 8.6%. Our model projects 76.9%. A 68-point gap, with Nathaniel Wood materially underrated by the market.

Muhammad Naimov vs Losene Keita. Public consensus implies Muhammad Naimov at 20.5%. Our model projects 42.2%. A 22-point gap, with Muhammad Naimov materially underrated by the market.

Full card projection

Matchup notes

Dan Hooker vs Salahdine Parnasse. Style symmetry between Salahdine Parnasse and Dan Hooker. The model declines to favor either side beyond noise.

Fares Ziam vs Axel Sola. Fares Ziam absorbs notably less (1.5 vs 2.7 per minute), projecting better damage profile through three rounds.

Daniil Donchenko vs Punahele Soriano. Daniil Donchenko enters 4-0 in his last 5; Punahele Soriano is 2-3. Recent-form trajectory tilts the matchup. Daniil Donchenko outpaces Punahele Soriano on strike volume (7.2 vs 4.4 per minute).

Kurtis Campbell vs Trevor Peek. Kurtis Campbell’s grappling pressure (22.5 takedowns / 15 min) projects to neutralize Trevor Peek’s striking lane. Kurtis Campbell holds the takedown-rate edge (22.5 vs 1.4 per 15 min).

Losene Keita vs Muhammad Naimov. Losene Keita absorbs notably less (0.0 vs 3.4 per minute), projecting better damage profile through three rounds.

Morgan Charriere vs Felipe Lima. Morgan Charriere outpaces Felipe Lima on strike volume (4.0 vs 2.9 per minute).

Mario Pinto vs Ryan Spann. Mario Pinto absorbs notably less (2.4 vs 4.1 per minute), projecting better damage profile through three rounds.

Oumar Sy vs Modestas Bukauskas. Oumar Sy holds the takedown-rate edge (2.7 vs 0.3 per 15 min).

Nathaniel Wood vs Pavel Andrusca. Model projects Nathaniel Wood (76.9%) over Pavel Andrusca; thin career data on both sides limits the narrative beyond the projection itself.

Michael Aljarouj vs Fabia Sintes. Model projects Michael Aljarouj (56.6%) over Fabia Sintes; thin career data on both sides limits the narrative beyond the projection itself.

Nora Cornolle vs Klaudia Sygula. Style symmetry between Nora Cornolle and Klaudia Sygula. The model declines to favor either side beyond noise.

Delphine Benouaich vs Sofia Montenegro. Style symmetry between Delphine Benouaich and Sofia Montenegro. The model declines to favor either side beyond noise.

How to read this

Projections come from VAR’s production UFC ensemble model, refreshed nightly. The model combines fighter performance metrics, simulation-based fight modeling, and historical opponent-strength signal, with conservative treatment of fighters who have limited recent data.

Confidence labels reflect projection spread:

• High: pick probability above 65%
• Medium: pick probability between 55 and 65%
• Coin flip: pick probability below 55%

Note: this analysis does not incorporate fight-week intelligence such as late injury reports or weight cut difficulty. Those signals are tracked through a separate process.

Model accuracy

Cross-validated across 3 independent test seasons in our 2026-04-30 audit:

• Straight-up winner accuracy across all fights: 76.7%
• Highest-confidence subset (n=207): 69.1% directional accuracy, 95% confidence interval [62.5%, 75.0%]

Full validation methodology and per-season breakdowns: Methodology.

Results

Card record: 7-5 across 12 settled fights.

For research and informational purposes only. Probabilities reflect model output and may diverge from realized outcomes.