UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Duncan: Model Analysis

Event: UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Duncan Posted: October 9, 2026 · VAR Research First fight: October 11 2026, 00:00 UTC Card scope: 11 fights, lines locked at posted time Methodology: Methodology Model accuracy: Performance

Where the model diverges from consensus

Two matchups show the largest gap between our projected win probability and the public consensus.

Otari Tanzilovi vs Malcolm Wellmaker. Public consensus implies Otari Tanzilovi at 36.0%. Our model projects 61.8%. A 26-point gap, with Otari Tanzilovi materially underrated by the market.

Kai Kamaka III vs Andre Fili. Public consensus implies Kai Kamaka III at 45.3%. Our model projects 65.4%. A 20-point gap, with Kai Kamaka III materially underrated by the market.

Full card projection

Matchup notes

Brendan Allen vs Christian Leroy Duncan. Brendan Allen’s grappling-vs-striking matchup tilts the projection.

Matheus Camilo vs Jai Herbert. Matheus Camilo holds the takedown-rate edge (4.4 vs 0.4 per 15 min).

Andre Fili vs Kai Kamaka III. Kai Kamaka III outpaces Andre Fili on strike volume (5.0 vs 3.9 per minute).

Malcolm Wellmaker vs Otari Tanzilovi. Otari Tanzilovi’s grappling pressure (4.0 takedowns / 15 min) projects to neutralize Malcolm Wellmaker’s striking lane. Otari Tanzilovi holds the takedown-rate edge (4.0 vs 0.0 per 15 min).

Julius Walker vs Gerald Meerschaert. Julius Walker holds the takedown-rate edge (4.1 vs 1.8 per 15 min).

Francisco Prado vs Ismael Bonfim. Striker-vs-striker matchup with Ismael Bonfim carrying the volume edge (5.5 vs 4.1 sig strikes per minute). Ismael Bonfim outpaces Francisco Prado on strike volume (5.5 vs 4.1 per minute).

Niko Price vs Leon Shahbazyan. Striker-vs-striker matchup with Leon Shahbazyan carrying the volume edge (6.3 vs 5.1 sig strikes per minute). Leon Shahbazyan outpaces Niko Price on strike volume (6.3 vs 5.1 per minute).

Felipe Franco vs Brendson Ribeiro. Felipe Franco holds the takedown-rate edge (6.1 vs 0.9 per 15 min).

Allen Frye Jr. vs RJ Harris. Model projects RJ Harris (69.2%) over Allen Frye Jr.; thin career data on both sides limits the narrative beyond the projection itself.

Alice Pereira vs Daria Zhelezniakova. Alice Pereira’s takedown defense (100%) is the largest gap on the board against Daria Zhelezniakova’s (50%).

Ernesta Kareckaite vs Melissa Gatto. Melissa Gatto absorbs notably less (2.8 vs 6.5 per minute), projecting better damage profile through three rounds.

How to read this

Projections come from VAR’s production UFC ensemble model, refreshed nightly. The model combines fighter performance metrics, simulation-based fight modeling, and historical opponent-strength signal, with conservative treatment of fighters who have limited recent data.

Confidence labels reflect projection spread:

• High: pick probability above 65%
• Medium: pick probability between 55 and 65%
• Coin flip: pick probability below 55%

Note: this analysis does not incorporate fight-week intelligence such as late injury reports or weight cut difficulty. Those signals are tracked through a separate process.

Model accuracy — live forward record

Every fight the production model priced before the bell since 2026-05-30, graded against the official result (n=217, through 2026-10-04; as of 2026-10-09):

• Straight-up winner accuracy: 64.5% (95% interval [58.0%, 70.7%])
• On the 209 fights with a pre-bout market price: the market’s favorite won 71.8%; Brier score model 0.224 vs de-vigged market 0.191 — the market is better calibrated.
• No betting tier has a validated positive return. VAR does not present UFC as a betting edge.

Full record, per card, with the withdrawn validation noted: Performance.

Results

Populates after card concludes.

For research and informational purposes only. Probabilities reflect model output and may diverge from realized outcomes.