UFC 333: Volkanovski vs Evloev: Model Analysis

Event: UFC 333: Volkanovski vs Evloev Posted: October 22, 2026 · VAR Research First fight: October 24 2026, 18:00 UTC Card scope: 14 fights, lines locked at posted time Methodology: Methodology Model accuracy: Performance

Where the model diverges from consensus

Two matchups show the largest gap between our projected win probability and the public consensus.

Dominick Reyes vs Azamat Murzakanov. Public consensus implies Dominick Reyes at 36.2%. Our model projects 53.8%. A 18-point gap, with Dominick Reyes materially underrated by the market.

Merab Dvalishvili vs Petr Yan. Public consensus implies Merab Dvalishvili at 43.8%. Our model projects 57.5%. A 14-point gap, with Merab Dvalishvili materially underrated by the market.

Full card projection

No projection is published for 4 bouts: our database is missing career statistics for a fighter (Abubakar Vagaev, Asaf Chopurov, Losene Keita, Noah Gugnon), and a number built on blank inputs would not be a real projection. These bouts are left out of the card record below.

Matchup notes

Alexander Volkanovski vs Movsar Evloev. Movsar Evloev holds the takedown-rate edge (4.7 vs 1.6 per 15 min).

Petr Yan vs Merab Dvalishvili. Merab Dvalishvili holds the takedown-rate edge (6.0 vs 1.7 per 15 min).

Lone’er Kavanagh vs Ramazan Temirov. Striker-vs-striker matchup, with Lone’er Kavanagh’s accuracy edge (48% vs 40%) doing the work.

Alexander Volkov vs Rizvan Kuniev. Alexander Volkov enters 5-0 in his last 5; Rizvan Kuniev is 2-1. Recent-form trajectory tilts the matchup.

Azamat Murzakanov vs Dominick Reyes. Style symmetry between Dominick Reyes and Azamat Murzakanov. The model declines to favor either side beyond noise.

Nikita Krylov vs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev. Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev outpaces Nikita Krylov on strike volume (20.9 vs 4.4 per minute).

Abus Magomedov vs Cam Rowston. Abus Magomedov’s grappling pressure (2.6 takedowns / 15 min) projects to neutralize Cam Rowston’s striking lane. Abus Magomedov holds the takedown-rate edge (2.6 vs 0.5 per 15 min).

Grant Dawson vs Nurullo Aliev. Grant Dawson holds the takedown-rate edge (3.8 vs 2.1 per 15 min).

Bolaji Oki vs Daniel Santos. Daniel Santos’s grappling pressure (3.0 takedowns / 15 min) projects to neutralize Bolaji Oki’s striking lane. Daniel Santos holds the takedown-rate edge (3.0 vs 1.0 per 15 min).

Iasmin Lucindo vs Nicolle Caliari. Iasmin Lucindo enters 4-1 in his last 5; Nicolle Caliari is 1-2. Recent-form trajectory tilts the matchup. Iasmin Lucindo absorbs notably less (2.8 vs 7.0 per minute), projecting better damage profile through three rounds.

How to read this

Projections come from VAR’s production UFC ensemble model, refreshed nightly. The model combines fighter performance metrics, simulation-based fight modeling, and historical opponent-strength signal, with conservative treatment of fighters who have limited recent data.

Confidence labels reflect projection spread:

• High: pick probability above 65%
• Medium: pick probability between 55 and 65%
• Coin flip: pick probability below 55%

Note: this analysis does not incorporate fight-week intelligence such as late injury reports or weight cut difficulty. Those signals are tracked through a separate process.

Model accuracy — live forward record

Every fight the production model priced before the bell since 2026-05-30, graded against the official result (n=245, through 2026-10-18; as of 2026-10-22):

• Straight-up winner accuracy: 62.5% (95% interval [56.3%, 68.3%])
• On the 235 fights with a pre-bout market price: the market’s favorite won 69.8%; Brier score model 0.233 vs de-vigged market 0.200 — the market is better calibrated.
• No betting tier has a validated positive return. VAR does not present UFC as a betting edge.

Full record, per card, with the withdrawn validation noted: Performance.

Results

Populates after card concludes.

For research and informational purposes only. Probabilities reflect model output and may diverge from realized outcomes.