UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2: Model Analysis

Event: UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2 Posted: July 15, 2026 · VAR Research First fight: July 12 2026, 01:00 UTC Card scope: 11 fights, lines locked at posted time Methodology: Methodology Model accuracy: Performance

Where the model diverges from consensus

Two matchups show the largest gap between our projected win probability and the public consensus.

Kai Kamaka III vs Luke Riley. Public consensus implies Kai Kamaka III at 28.5%. Our model projects 48.2%. A 20-point gap, with Kai Kamaka III materially underrated by the market.

Farid Basharat vs John Garza. Public consensus implies Farid Basharat at 59.5%. Our model projects 76.8%. A 17-point gap, with Farid Basharat materially underrated by the market.

Full card projection

Matchup notes

Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway. Striker-vs-striker matchup with Max Holloway carrying the volume edge (7.2 vs 5.3 sig strikes per minute). Max Holloway outpaces Conor McGregor on strike volume (7.2 vs 5.3 per minute).

Cory Sandhagen vs Mario Bautista. Model projects Mario Bautista (62.2%) over Cory Sandhagen; thin career data on both sides limits the narrative beyond the projection itself.

King Green vs Terrance McKinney. Style symmetry between Terrance McKinney and King Green. The model declines to favor either side beyond noise.

Nikita Krylov vs Robert Whittaker. Style symmetry between Robert Whittaker and Nikita Krylov. The model declines to favor either side beyond noise.

Gable Steveson vs Elisha Ellison. Gable Steveson absorbs notably less (0.0 vs 15.1 per minute), projecting better damage profile through three rounds.

Cody Garbrandt vs Adrian Yanez. Adrian Yanez outpaces Cody Garbrandt on strike volume (6.2 vs 2.9 per minute).

Luke Riley vs Kai Kamaka III. Style symmetry between Luke Riley and Kai Kamaka III. The model declines to favor either side beyond noise.

Tracy Cortez vs Wang Cong. Style symmetry between Wang Cong and Tracy Cortez. The model declines to favor either side beyond noise.

Damian Pinas vs Cesar Almeida. Damian Pinas outpaces Cesar Almeida on strike volume (7.5 vs 3.5 per minute).

Farid Basharat vs John Garza. Model projects Farid Basharat (76.8%) over John Garza; thin career data on both sides limits the narrative beyond the projection itself.

Alessandro Costa vs Cody Durden. Alessandro Costa enters 4-1 in his last 5; Cody Durden is 2-3. Recent-form trajectory tilts the matchup. Alessandro Costa absorbs notably less (3.6 vs 4.5 per minute), projecting better damage profile through three rounds.

How to read this

Projections come from VAR’s production UFC ensemble model, refreshed nightly. The model combines fighter performance metrics, simulation-based fight modeling, and historical opponent-strength signal, with conservative treatment of fighters who have limited recent data.

Confidence labels reflect projection spread:

• High: pick probability above 65%
• Medium: pick probability between 55 and 65%
• Coin flip: pick probability below 55%

Note: this analysis does not incorporate fight-week intelligence such as late injury reports or weight cut difficulty. Those signals are tracked through a separate process.

Model accuracy

Cross-validated across 3 independent test seasons in our 2026-04-30 audit:

• Straight-up winner accuracy across all fights: 76.7%
• Highest-confidence subset (n=207): 69.1% directional accuracy, 95% confidence interval [62.5%, 75.0%]

Full validation methodology and per-season breakdowns: Methodology.

Results

Card record: 10-1 across 11 settled fights.

For research and informational purposes only. Probabilities reflect model output and may diverge from realized outcomes.