UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2: Model Analysis

Event: UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2 Posted: July 7, 2026 · VAR Research First fight: July 12 2026, 01:00 UTC Card scope: 11 fights, lines locked at posted time Methodology: Methodology Model accuracy: Performance

Where the model diverges from consensus

Two matchups show the largest gap between our projected win probability and the public consensus.

Elisha Ellison vs Gable Steveson. Public consensus implies Elisha Ellison at 3.4%. Our model projects 25.6%. A 22-point gap, with Elisha Ellison materially underrated by the market.

Mario Bautista vs Cory Sandhagen. Public consensus implies Mario Bautista at 44.9%. Our model projects 64.3%. A 19-point gap, with Mario Bautista materially underrated by the market.

Full card projection

Matchup notes

Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway. Striker-vs-striker matchup with Max Holloway carrying the volume edge (7.2 vs 5.3 sig strikes per minute). Max Holloway outpaces Conor McGregor on strike volume (7.2 vs 5.3 per minute).

Cory Sandhagen vs Mario Bautista. Model projects Mario Bautista (64.3%) over Cory Sandhagen; thin career data on both sides limits the narrative beyond the projection itself.

King Green vs Terrance McKinney. Terrance McKinney’s grappling pressure (3.3 takedowns / 15 min) projects to neutralize King Green’s striking lane. Terrance McKinney holds the takedown-rate edge (3.3 vs 1.3 per 15 min).

Nikita Krylov vs Robert Whittaker. Style symmetry between Robert Whittaker and Nikita Krylov. The model declines to favor either side beyond noise.

Gable Steveson vs Elisha Ellison. Gable Steveson absorbs notably less (0.0 vs 15.1 per minute), projecting better damage profile through three rounds.

Cody Garbrandt vs Adrian Yanez. Adrian Yanez outpaces Cody Garbrandt on strike volume (6.2 vs 2.9 per minute).

Luke Riley vs Kai Kamaka III. Style symmetry between Kai Kamaka III and Luke Riley. The model declines to favor either side beyond noise.

Tracy Cortez vs Wang Cong. Wang Cong outpaces Tracy Cortez on strike volume (6.2 vs 3.9 per minute).

Damian Pinas vs Cesar Almeida. Damian Pinas outpaces Cesar Almeida on strike volume (7.5 vs 3.5 per minute).

Ryan Gandra vs Zachary Reese. Model projects Ryan Gandra (64.3%) over Zachary Reese; thin career data on both sides limits the narrative beyond the projection itself.

Alessandro Costa vs Cody Durden. Alessandro Costa absorbs notably less (3.6 vs 4.5 per minute), projecting better damage profile through three rounds.

How to read this

Projections come from VAR’s production UFC ensemble model, refreshed nightly. The model combines fighter performance metrics, simulation-based fight modeling, and historical opponent-strength signal, with conservative treatment of fighters who have limited recent data.

Confidence labels reflect projection spread:

• High: pick probability above 65%
• Medium: pick probability between 55 and 65%
• Coin flip: pick probability below 55%

Note: this analysis does not incorporate fight-week intelligence such as late injury reports or weight cut difficulty. Those signals are tracked through a separate process.

Model accuracy

Cross-validated across 3 independent test seasons in our 2026-04-30 audit:

• Straight-up winner accuracy across all fights: 76.7%
• Highest-confidence subset (n=207): 69.1% directional accuracy, 95% confidence interval [62.5%, 75.0%]

Full validation methodology and per-season breakdowns: Methodology.

Results

Populates after card concludes.

For research and informational purposes only. Probabilities reflect model output and may diverge from realized outcomes.