Closing line
value calculator.
Enter your bet's price and the closing line. Get raw and no-vig CLV side by side. Provide the opposite side's closing odds for the cleaner no-vig number. Free, no signup.
Provide the opposite side's closing odds to compute no-vig CLV. Leave blank for raw CLV only.
CLV in
two steps.
raw_CLV = your_decimal / close_decimal − 1
no_vig_CLV = your_decimal / fair_close_decimal − 1
Where fair_close_decimalis the closing line after stripping the bookmaker's vig from both sides of the market. Use the no-vig converter or feed both closing odds into the field above to compute it automatically.
CLV is positive when your price was better than where the market closed. Sustained positive CLV across a large sample is the strongest evidence available that a bettor or model is generating real edge.
Questions,
answered.
What is closing line value (CLV)?
Closing line value is the difference between the price you got when you bet and the price the same market closed at. Beating the close consistently is the most reliable indicator of long-term predictive edge, because the closing line is the sharpest version of the market after all serious money has weighed in.
Why does CLV matter more than win/loss in the short term?
Outcomes are noisy. A sharp bettor can lose ten in a row and still be playing +EV; a square can win ten in a row and still be playing -EV. CLV cuts through that variance because it measures the expected value of your decision at the moment you made it, not the realized result of one particular trial.
How is raw CLV different from no-vig CLV?
Raw CLV compares your decimal odds directly to the closing decimal odds. It is easy to compute but inflated, because the closing line still includes the bookmaker's vig. No-vig CLV strips that vig out by using both sides of the closing market, then compares your bet to the implied fair price. No-vig CLV is the more honest number and is what serious bettors track.
What CLV target should a bettor aim for?
Pinnacle, Circa, and other sharp markets often quote a 2-3% no-vig CLV as the threshold above which a bettor is reliably +EV. Sustained no-vig CLV above 1% across hundreds of bets is already strong; above 3% across a meaningful sample is exceptional.
Does positive CLV guarantee a winning bet?
No. CLV measures expected value, not realized outcome. A bet with +5% CLV can still lose, just as a -5% CLV bet can still win. The math only converges over many bets. CLV is a quality-of-decision metric, not a quality-of-result metric.
Want to track CLV
across a season?
VAR builds calibrated probability models that consistently beat the closing line. The CLV calculator measures one bet. Our platform measures every bet.
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