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Why Calibration Matters More Than Accuracy in Franchise Analytics

A miscalibrated analytics model doesn't just give a franchise the wrong answer. It gives the coaching staff and front office the wrong amount of confidence in the right answer, which is worse. The difference between a model that says "72% chance this prospect becomes a starter" when the true rate is 72% versus when the true rate is 55% is the difference between a sound draft pick and a wasted first-round selection. Most franchise analytics departments optimize their models for accuracy. They sh

April 2026
Industry

AI Can't Bet on Sports? Wrong AI, Right Problem.

General Reasoning just released KellyBench — a study that tasked frontier LLMs with betting a full Premier League season. The results made headlines everywhere from Ars Technica to Benzinga: every model lost money, Grok went bankrupt, and Claude — the best performer — still finished down 11%. The headline is fun. But the lesson isn't "AI can't bet on sports." It's that general-purpose language models aren't built for this. What KellyBench Actually Tested The study placed eight frontier AI sy

April 2026
Industry

The Lines Are Blurring

Six months ago, prediction markets were a niche conversation among quant traders and crypto-native speculators. Today, MLB has an official prediction market partner. The NHL gave both Kalshi and Polymarket access to league marks. MLS built an entire authorized operator framework around the category. And the CFTC is suing states for trying to regulate what it considers its exclusive jurisdiction. The old taxonomy — DFS in one bucket, sportsbooks in another, prediction markets somewhere closer to

April 2026
Industry

The Problem With Expert Picks (And What We Built Instead)

Sports media runs on experts. Former players, analysts, journalists with decades of game experience — they break down film, assess matchups, and deliver picks with authority. And they are wrong about as often as they are right. This is not a knock on expertise. Film study and pattern recognition are real and valuable. The problem is that human experts — no matter how knowledgeable — systematically struggle with two things that determine outcomes in sports: quantifying uncertainty and processin

April 2026