UFC Fight Night recap: Allen vs. Duncan

The model called Felipe Franco to win at 76.7% confidence. Brendson Ribeiro won by submission. That’s the headline.

Right: Julius Walker (65.6%), Brendan Allen (63.8%), Otari Tanzilovi (61.5%), Alice Pereira (59.6%). Wrong: Matheus Camilo (72.1%), Leon Shahbazyan (71.1%), RJ Harris (68.8%), Kai Kamaka III (65.4%), Ismael Bonfim (63.7%). Pending: Ernesta Kareckaite vs Melissa Gatto did not appear on ufcstats; likely scratched.

Full per-pick breakdown with the model’s projected win probability and the graded outcome on each fight: https://victory-ar.com/research/picks/ufc-fight-night-allen-vs-duncan

We do not publish single-card win rates as headline marketing. Small samples are the failure mode HVP was written to filter. The aggregate that matters lives on the leaderboard, audited quarterly.