UFC Fight Night recap: Kape vs. Horiguchi 2

The model called Andre Lima to win at 72.2% confidence. Kevin Borjas won by unanimous decision. That’s the headline.

Right: Vinicius Oliveira (76.0%), Christian Rodriguez (74.8%), Navajo Stirling (67.8%), Manel Kape (67.7%). Wrong: Michael Aswell Jr. (57.6%), Allan Nascimento (55.1%). Pending: 2 fights still ungraded.

Full per-pick breakdown with the model’s projected win probability and the graded outcome on each fight: https://victory-ar.com/research/picks/ufc-fight-night-kape-vs-horiguchi-2

We do not publish single-card win rates as headline marketing. Small samples are the failure mode HVP was written to filter. The aggregate that matters lives on the leaderboard, audited quarterly.