UFC Fight Night recap: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos

The model called John Castaneda to win at 72.9% confidence. Alatengheili won by split decision. That’s the headline.

Right: Yazmin Jauregui (80.0%), Luis Hernandez (64.9%), Montel Jackson (60.5%), Rodolfo Vieira (60.4%). Wrong: Raoni Barcelos (64.7%), Rodolfo Bellato (61.8%), Rinya Nakamura (58.8%), Melissa Amaya (52.7%), Mehemmedeli Osmanli (52.5%).

Full per-pick breakdown with the model’s projected win probability and the graded outcome on each fight: https://victory-ar.com/research/picks/ufc-fight-night-rosas-jr-vs-barcelos

We do not publish single-card win rates as headline marketing. Small samples are the failure mode HVP was written to filter. The aggregate that matters lives on the leaderboard, audited quarterly.