UFC Freedom 250 recap: Topuria vs. Gaethje

The model called Ilia Topuria to win at 75.1% confidence. Justin Gaethje won by KO/TKO. That’s the headline.

Right: Bo Nickal (71.0%), Sean O’Malley (70.1%), Josh Hokit (66.7%), Ciryl Gane (66.5%). Wrong: Steve Garcia (54.8%).

Full per-pick breakdown with the model’s projected win probability and the graded outcome on each fight: https://victory-ar.com/research/picks/ufc-freedom-250-topuria-vs-gaethje

We do not publish single-card win rates as headline marketing. Small samples are the failure mode HVP was written to filter. The aggregate that matters lives on the leaderboard, audited quarterly.