UFC 328 recap: Chimaev vs. Strickland

The model called Khamzat Chimaev to win at 75.1% confidence. Sean Strickland won by split decision. That’s the headline.

Right: Ateba Gautier (78.0%), Grant Dawson (73.4%), King Green (71.8%), Sean Brady (66.9%). Wrong: Jared Gordon (60.6%), William Gomis (55.9%), Waldo Cortes Acosta (53.1%), Tatsuro Taira (52.9%). Pending: Bogdan Guskov vs Jan Blachowicz did not appear on ufcstats; likely scratched.

Full per-pick breakdown with the model’s projected win probability and the graded outcome on each fight: https://victory-ar.com/research/picks/ufc-328-chimaev-vs-strickland

We do not publish single-card win rates as headline marketing. Small samples are the failure mode HVP was written to filter. The aggregate that matters lives on the leaderboard, audited quarterly.