UFC 329 recap: McGregor vs. Holloway 2

The model called Benoit Saint Denis to win at 71.5% confidence. Paddy Pimblett won by submission. That’s the headline.

Right: Gable Steveson (79.0%), Max Holloway (78.4%), Farid Basharat (76.8%), Damian Pinas (75.8%). Wrong: Lone’er Kavanagh (64.9%), Terrance McKinney (54.1%).

Full per-pick breakdown with the model’s projected win probability and the graded outcome on each fight: https://victory-ar.com/research/picks/ufc-329-mcgregor-vs-holloway-2

We do not publish single-card win rates as headline marketing. Small samples are the failure mode HVP was written to filter. The aggregate that matters lives on the leaderboard, audited quarterly.