UFC Fight Night recap: Allen vs. Costa

The model called Andre Petroski to win at 61.6% confidence. Cody Brundage won by KO/TKO. That’s the headline.

Right: Alice Ardelean (67.5%), Dooho Choi (54.2%), Luis Gurule (54.0%), Juan Diaz (50.0%). Wrong: Shauna Bannon (59.4%), Jacqueline Cavalcanti (55.5%), Tuco Tokkos (54.5%), Melquizael Costa (51.7%), Nikolay Veretennikov (50.8%). Pending: 19 fights still ungraded.

Full per-pick breakdown with the model’s projected win probability and the graded outcome on each fight: https://victory-ar.com/research/picks/ufc-fight-night-allen-vs-costa

We do not publish single-card win rates as headline marketing. Small samples are the failure mode HVP was written to filter. The aggregate that matters lives on the leaderboard, audited quarterly.