UFC Fight Night recap: Ankalaev vs. Guskov

The model called Ismael Bonfim to win at 61.2% confidence. Axel Sola won by submission. That’s the headline.

Right: Rizvan Kuniev (70.9%), Magomed Ankalaev (65.8%), Nurullo Aliev (58.0%), Valter Walker (57.4%). Wrong: Steve Erceg (51.6%). Pending: 5 fights still ungraded.

Full per-pick breakdown with the model’s projected win probability and the graded outcome on each fight: https://victory-ar.com/research/picks/ufc-fight-night-ankalaev-vs-guskov

We do not publish single-card win rates as headline marketing. Small samples are the failure mode HVP was written to filter. The aggregate that matters lives on the leaderboard, audited quarterly.