UFC Fight Night recap: Moicano vs. Nolan

The model called Ode Osbourne to win at 57.0% confidence. Cody Durden won by unanimous decision. That’s the headline.

Right: Zach Reese (60.3%), Piera Rodriguez (58.9%), Luana Santos (57.5%), Jacobe Smith (55.0%). Wrong: Renato Moicano (51.8%).

Full per-pick breakdown with the model’s projected win probability and the graded outcome on each fight: https://victory-ar.com/research/picks/ufc-fight-night-moicano-vs-nolan

We do not publish single-card win rates as headline marketing. Small samples are the failure mode HVP was written to filter. The aggregate that matters lives on the leaderboard, audited quarterly.