UFC Fight Night recap: Muhammad vs. Bonfim

The model called Jordan Leavitt to win at 64.6% confidence. Joanderson Brito won by submission. That’s the headline.

Right: Marcus McGhee (71.8%), Ketlen Souza (70.4%), Bryce Mitchell (70.2%), Brendan Allen (67.7%). Wrong: Priscila Cachoeira (58.3%).

Full per-pick breakdown with the model’s projected win probability and the graded outcome on each fight: https://victory-ar.com/research/picks/ufc-fight-night-muhammad-vs-bonfim

We do not publish single-card win rates as headline marketing. Small samples are the failure mode HVP was written to filter. The aggregate that matters lives on the leaderboard, audited quarterly.