UFC Fight Night recap: Song vs. Figueiredo

The model called Loma Lookboonmee to win at 67.2% confidence. Jaqueline Amorim won by submission. That’s the headline.

Right: Song Yadong (71.7%), Rei Tsuruya (71.0%), Sergei Pavlovich (69.9%), Jake Matthews (69.5%). Wrong: Cameron Smotherman (62.7%), Jingnan Xiong (60.8%), Zhang Mingyang (58.4%). Pending: Alex Perez vs Sumudaerji did not appear on ufcstats; likely scratched.

Full per-pick breakdown with the model’s projected win probability and the graded outcome on each fight: https://victory-ar.com/research/picks/ufc-fight-night-song-vs-figueiredo

We do not publish single-card win rates as headline marketing. Small samples are the failure mode HVP was written to filter. The aggregate that matters lives on the leaderboard, audited quarterly.